Vienna Almost two weeks after the collapse of the Kakhovka dam in southern Ukraine, the water level is slowly sinking. 37 flooded villages and a contaminated landscape remain. The health authorities in Kiev measured a concentration of some toxins and pollutants that was 28,000 times above the permitted limit values.
So far, 17 bodies have been recovered on the Ukrainian-controlled territory on the right bank of the Dnipro, and 35 on Russian-held territory. According to helpers and local residents, their number is likely to rise because many people were surprised and trapped by the floods. The ongoing fighting in the region and, above all, the Russian artillery fire make the care and evacuation of those affected life-threatening.
The war also makes it difficult to answer the most pressing question: how did the catastrophic dam burst? Kiev and Moscow accuse each other of causing the structure to collapse. An accident is also a possibility – but an accident for which the Russians are responsible, since it would be the result of negligent neglect of critical infrastructure in the occupied territory.
Ukrainian rocket fire in August 2022 damaged the road near the dam, but not the dam itself, satellite images show. When the Russians withdrew from the right bank in November, they blew up part of the crossing and damaged two locks. From this point on, the cranes that regulate the water flow were no longer moved. The water level dropped to a record low. In May, the melt water then pushed it to a record high.
The resulting pressure of the water on the damaged dam, according to the accident theory, could have caused it to burst on June 6th.
The whirlpools formed by the high water pressure are clearly visible.
(Photo: via REUTERS)
Based on satellite images and discussions with engineers, journalist and Osint specialist Ryan McBeth concludes that the damaged and open locks have been creating eddies in the river for months, which have undermined the foundations of the structure. At the same time, the high water level constantly increased the pressure on the upper part of the dam, which eventually caused it to collapse.
The accident theory is also supported by the fact that there is only weak evidence of an explosion. The media have quoted chats from individual residents in which they mentioned such a thing. Since they live in Russian-occupied territory, the information cannot be verified. The same applies to anonymous statements from American security circles, according to which a spy satellite registered thermal radiation, which indicates an explosion.
Deliberate demolition?
The strongest indication of the blast are seismic signals measured by measuring stations in Romania and Ukraine. According to Norwegian experts, these indicate an explosion shortly before 3 a.m. This would correspond to information from Kiev. However, experts disagree on whether the allegedly limited extent of the explosion was enough to bring down the dam.
On Friday, the New York Times published research that provides the most plausible evidence of an explosion so far. Based on construction plans and interviews with experts, the newspaper identified an “Achilles’ heel deep inside the dam”: a narrow passageway within the massive concrete foundation that anchored the dam to the river bed between the two banks.
This gallery was accessible from the engine room, which the Russians controlled. This is where the explosive device is said to have been attached. This could explain why the detonation was hardly noticed from the outside. Drone images show that the dam first broke near the engine room. Despite the drop in the water level, the concrete foundation in the central part is still not visible on satellite images, which the newspaper says indicates that it was destroyed.
Explosives are believed to be inside.
(Photo: AP)
On Monday, the Ukrainians also published a drone image from May 28, 2023, showing a car without a roof. It stands on the Russian-controlled part of the Kakhovka Dam, and barrels can be seen inside. One has a landmine attached to it, according to the Associated Press.
Ukrainian military officials are considering the possibility that the car amplified the explosion. However, the NZZ was able to use satellite images to show that the car was still in the same place the day after the explosion. The picture therefore only provides evidence that the Russians mined the dam.
The missing motive
Even if only an independent investigation could provide evidence, the new clues point in the direction of Moscow. Apart from a few propagandists, nobody believes that a Ukrainian shelling from outside was enough to bring down the dam. And that Kiev would have managed to infiltrate a sabotage team seems very unlikely. Russia had easier access and demonstrable troops stationed locally.
However, the motive remains a mystery: Ukrainian and Western experts name terrorism, a scorched earth tactic or the prevention of a possible Ukrainian counter-offensive on the lower reaches of the Dnipro.
It has been proven that Russia does not shy away from terrorism in its war of aggression against Ukraine. But deliberately blowing up the dam required a whole new level of cynicism and irrationality. It would make no sense economically, politically or militarily.
Russia’s uncoordinated response at all levels shows that neither the army nor the occupation authorities were prepared for the flood. The civilian representatives first downplayed the disaster and then carried out chaotic evacuations.
To this day, non-governmental organizations have been barred from the affected areas, and the UN has now publicly complained about the Russians’ refusal to allow international aid into the areas. The military acts primarily as a blocker.
However, the army seems overwhelmed. The General Staff in Kiev and the Institute for the Study of War document how suddenly the floods hit the Russians. Defense positions, minefields and artillery positions that had been prepared for months were suddenly swept away.
Some soldiers even had to be rescued from drowning by Ukrainian special forces. Meanwhile, sources from the Ukrainian resistance also report cases of cholera within the Russian army, resulting from the consumption of contaminated water.
The unpredictable consequences
Added to this is another risk for Moscow’s troops: the outflow of water in the Kakhovka reservoir above the dam causes the kilometer-wide lake to become a much narrower river once the summer sun dries the water around it.
Military experts are already speculating as to whether this will open up the left flank of Russia’s southern front – a flank on which the occupiers have not yet built strong defensive positions due to the seemingly insurmountable natural obstacle. It is not yet possible to say how well the area, which has been wet for a long time, will be passable one day and whether the Ukrainians have enough vehicles for it. However, it seems clear that if the Russians were really behind the explosion, they would have scored a colossal own goal.
Collaboration: Forrest Rogers
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