Is the West Losing Latin America? Already during the Cold War, this question was feverishly debated in Washington and elsewhere. It is now regaining importance with the return of great power competition and the potential revival of spheres of influence. The recent wave of leftist election victories in the region also contributes to this.
For the West, the looming specter of a hot conflict with authoritarian regimes from Russia to China has shown once again how important Latin America is as a partner region. However, the United States and its allies are preoccupied with the war in Ukraine, not least because of its impact on energy markets and economic prosperity.
Effective engagement in Latin America is also made more difficult by the unsettled political situation there. Although the region has long been plagued by corruption, inequality and crises of confidence, it had made significant progress in recent years. The reduced poverty also contributed to political stabilization – which was often achieved through socio-political experiments financed with raw materials.
The pandemic has ended political stability in Latin and South America
But the pandemic has interrupted this process, leading to economic problems and political instability. Latin America’s traditional party system has now collapsed, and the region seems firmly in the grip of populism and polarization.
Top jobs of the day
Find the best jobs now and
be notified by email.
Five of Latin America’s six most populous countries are now led by left-leaning governments, but they are of a very different stuff from those in Cuba or Venezuela.
Pedro Castillo, the Peruvian head of state, describes himself as a Marxist. In Chile – once the bastion of liberal market politics in the region – left-wing activist Gabriel Boric is now in power. Colombia, which has long been considered a leading indicator of political currents in the region, recently elected former guerrilla Gustavo Petro as president.
And Brazil, the region’s most populous country and largest economy, may well follow its neighbors after October’s presidential election.
Meanwhile, there are mounting signs that Western influence in Latin America is waning: at the United Nations General Assembly last February, five Latin American countries refused to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
And many governments there have not joined Western sanctions against Russia either. This has led to speculation that the region may seek a return to Cold War-style non-alignment.
The US and the EU are indifferent to Latin America
In addition, some Latin American leaders had vowed to boycott last month’s Summit of the Americas if their Cuban, Venezuelan and Nicaraguan counterparts were excluded. A failed summit – and with it a great disgrace for the government of US President Joe Biden – seemed quite possible.
The meeting was ultimately saved. But its outcome — a pro forma statement on migration and a rather toothless American Partnership for Economic Prosperity — wasn’t very impressive. The meeting may not have been a debacle, but neither will it leave a lasting mark on the region.
This not only reflects the political developments in Latin America, but also the failure of the West. Although Biden is not as opposed to the region as his predecessor, Donald Trump, his administration has failed to develop effective policies towards it.
>>Read here: The World After: How the Ukraine War Redistributed Power and Wealth
Latin American countries are frustrated by Biden’s apparent indifference, as well as his willingness to let domestic considerations guide his policies – including the upcoming midterm elections and the politics of states with large Latin American constituencies like Florida.
Europe hasn’t done any better either. Ever since the European Union agreed “in principle” to a free trade agreement with the Mercosur countries – which has yet to be ratified – its approach to Latin America has been one of indifference.
The EU failed to conduct effective pandemic diplomacy and is now totally focused on the war in Ukraine and improving its security and becoming independent of Russian energy.
China offers deals, initially with no strings attached
China, meanwhile, is expanding its influence in Latin America: Between 2002 and 2021, the country’s total trade with the region skyrocketed – from $18 billion to almost $449 billion.
If this continues, 700 billion will be exceeded by 2035. This increase is partly due to free trade agreements with Chile, Costa Rica and Peru. In addition, China is working on an agreement with Ecuador and has involved 21 Latin American countries in its New Silk Road.
China has achieved this by offering many trade and investment perks without strings attached. According to one comment, America’s dealings with Latin America are something of a Vatican style – with many rules and conditions from the start – while China welcomes other countries in the easy way of Mormon missionaries.
This does not mean that China does not make demands, but this only turns out later, often in the form of hidden clauses. By the time these come to light, China already has a solid presence in the region — including a growing military presence.
The West needs Latin America as an ally
As during the Cold War, the West cannot afford to lose Latin America today. As a major producer of fuel and food, the region can fill significant gaps in supply chains.
Moreover, if the West is to revitalize the rules-based international order, it must join forces with its partners and allies to reach some kind of critical mass – which includes Latin America.
That is why the West urgently needs to work to rebuild its lost trust in the region. This takes time, commitment and diplomatic effort.
First, the US and Europe should work together on areas of common interest such as climate change, health and migration. The forthcoming Spanish Presidency of the EU Council offers an important opportunity for this. In any case, steps must be taken in the coming months.
In the polarized political climate prevailing in much of the West, revitalizing relations with Latin America will not be easy.
But when the stakes are as high as they are today, we cannot afford to sit back and relax.
The author:
Ana Palacio is a former Spanish Foreign Minister and former Vice President and Advisor to the World Bank.
More: Commentary – No vaccines, instead instruction on democracy: Europe and the USA must do more to recruit partners in Latin America