Dusseldorf, Berlin Federal Health Minister Karl Lauterbach warns of a high number of deaths and massive restrictions on hospital treatments in the current corona wave with the highly contagious omicron variant. “We are threatened with very difficult weeks in Germany,” said the SPD politician to a major German newspaper. “In view of the currently declining number of hospitals, especially in the intensive care units, we should not feel safe.”
The situation in the clinics will worsen again. At the moment, it is mainly the younger people who are ill who have many contacts. If the elderly become infected, the number of hospital admissions will increase again. “Depending on the development, it can be scarce not only in the intensive care units, but also in the normal wards. There is a risk of entire departments being closed,” said Lauterbach. “An epidemic means that hundreds of thousands will become seriously ill and we will again have to mourn many thousands of corona deaths.”
According to Federal Minister of Health Lauterbach, a decision will be made at the next conference of prime ministers on January 24 whether the measures currently in force for the omicron wave are sufficient or whether they need to be tightened. He rejects school closures or a lockdown. He prefers a different approach: “I’m a big believer in adding to the booster incentives for medical reasons. So that it makes an even bigger difference whether I have the third vaccination or not.”
Meanwhile, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) reported another record high for the nationwide seven-day incidence on Sunday morning. Accordingly, the value of weekly new infections per 100,000 inhabitants was 515.7 – and thus above the threshold of 500 for the first time. For comparison: the day before the value was 497.1.
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In the last corona wave in winter and spring 2021, the critical limit value for corona measures was an incidence of 50 – at that time, however, only a few people were fully vaccinated. With the more infectious but apparently less pathogenic variant omicron and a majority of the population who have been vaccinated, the higher incidences for the hospitals and the critical infrastructure have so far been manageable. RKI President Lothar Wieler sees this as a “new phase of the pandemic” in which the number of cases will be less decisive than the number of seriously ill people.
The health authorities in Germany reported 52,504 new corona infections to the RKI within one day. A week ago there were 36,552 infections.
So far, the number of intensive care patients has continued to fall
So far, the omicron wave has not arrived in the intensive care units. The number of corona patients treated there has fallen from around 5000 in the first half of December to 2799 (Saturday). However, Wieler warns that although the number of hospital admissions is lower in relation to the total number of infections, hospitals could still reach their limits if the number of infections continues to rise sharply. In addition, the rising incidences only affect hospitalizations with a certain time lag.
With a view to the intensive care units, Christian Karagiannidis, scientific director of the Divi intensive care register, says: “We are not likely to see a renewed increase in the number of intensive care patients in Germany quite so quickly.” While at Delta, around one in five corona patients who came to a hospital , needed intensive medical care, be it only about one in ten at Omikron.
Karagiannidis is cautiously optimistic about the further course of the omicron wave: “At the moment I rather expect that we will get it dampened in this country, due to the comparatively good and strict measures, such as 2G plus.” But there are still not all questions clarified with regard to German peculiarities: “It is open: What happens when Omikron arrives at older and very old people? That still worries me,” he said. The incidences in Germany are currently significantly higher in young people than in older people.
In any case, Karagiannidis considers it possible to take countermeasures in good time as the load increases. “It doesn’t all explode after two days.” He does not currently expect that seriously ill people will have to be relocated within Germany again, as at the peak of the delta wave at the end of 2021.
According to the German Hospital Society (DKG), hospitals are already feeling the first effects of the omicron wave through more admissions of patients with Covid diseases. However, DKG President Gerald Gaß warned in the “Augsburger Allgemeine”: “In contrast to previous waves, more patients will probably arrive in the normal wards in the coming weeks, since the probability of having a difficult course is lower at Omikron “.
What the new ratios could look like can be seen in Great Britain: Here the incidence was at times over 2000, four times as high as in the alpha variant wave about a year ago. The number of people who had to be artificially ventilated was around 800 in comparison, but only around a fifth, a year earlier it was 4000. Due to the sheer mass of illnesses, 24 hospitals have already declared an emergency in the new year.
Drosten: Infection “on the basis of vaccination protection anchored in the general population”
The virologist Christian Drosten even sees a “chance” in the milder omicron variant of the corona virus to get into the endemic state. When asked the relevant question, the virologist told the “Tagesspiegel am Sonntag”: “There would be a chance now, provided there is broad immunity.” Drosten said that sooner or later everyone would have to be infected with Sars-Cov-2. “Yes, we have to get into this channel, there is no alternative,” he said. “In the long run, we cannot get the immune protection of the entire population every few months with a booster vaccination.” The virus has to do that. “The virus has to spread, but on the basis of vaccination protection that is anchored in the general population” – otherwise “too many people would die”.
In the interview, Drosten also gave hope for a life like before the pandemic. Masks would have to be worn in certain situations for a few more years, which would be annoying. But there will also be “a few benefits”: The virus has advanced medicine. “MRNA technology is a huge breakthrough, also for cancer and for other infectious diseases, just think of influenza.”
When asked whether “we will ever live like before the pandemic again,” the scientist from the Berlin Charité said: “Yes, absolutely. I am completely sure of that.”
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