The minimum wage for 2024 has been announced. After the minimum wage was announced, many experts made statements about the minimum wage. So when will the increase in purchasing power that comes with the price hike lose its effect?
A significant part of the population in Turkey tries to make ends meet on minimum wage. The salary that many people receive is on a scale adjacent to the minimum wage. That’s why almost everyone’s eyes were on the minimum wage amount to be announced.
With the official announcement, the net minimum wage for 2024 will increase by 49% 17 thousand 2 TL happened. Experts shared their comments on this subject.
What did the experts say?
After the announcement of the minimum wage Özgür Demirtaş, “According to my calculations, the wage announced around April will fall below the Hunger Line (kitchen expenses for a family of four). That’s why the fight against inflation is so important.” He made a statement.
“Financial Gourmet” businessman known as Iris Cibre He made a more optimistic prediction.
Cibre stated that Erdoğan put his emphasis; minimum wage, in June He said he would stay below the hunger line.
Economist Evren Devrim Zelyut said that the figure that will protect workers against inflation is It is 26 thousand liras, He stated that 17 thousand liras will remain below the hunger line in May.
In other words, among the predictions coming from important names in the field serious differences It was apparent that it was.
So how do we know if the effect of the minimum wage increase has disappeared?
We see that our purchasing power has decreased, we When we start not getting or getting less We understand. “Brother, this was 100 TL a month ago, when did they put a 139 TL label on it!” When we say this, we become painfully aware of this situation.
So how can we understand that the increase in purchasing power that comes with the price hike has disappeared? For this reason, important actors in global trade dollar, gold and euro We can look at parities.
Let’s start with the dollar first:
Today, the minimum wage is 11,402.32 lira. According to the current exchange rate dated December 28, the minimum wage is currently $387.16 has reached its level. In this case, the dollar exchange rate 43.91 TL When this happens, the purchasing power of the 2024 minimum wage, which is 17,002 TL, will return to the same point as 11,402 TL.
Economists have different predictions about how much TL the dollar will be. However, the dollar is not expected to reach this point in the first half of the year, of course. Economic balances can change at any time.
Let’s evaluate the minimum wage for Euro:
Today’s minimum wage and current exchange rate 347.82 euros It is possible to get it. euro exchange rate 48.88 TL When this happens, the minimum wage increase will be eroded against the euro. The euro has been gaining value against the dollar recently.
Although the euro/dollar cross rate is currently around 1.11, the rise may continue up to 1.15. According to forecasts, the minimum wage will increase against the euro by the end of the year. It will not fall to today’s level easily.
Let’s also look at gold prices:
The price of gram gold is currently in the free market [194513TL. So we can buy 5.86 grams of gold with minimum wage. gold price 2901 TLWhen it reaches , the effect of the minimum wage increase against gold will have decreased to zero, and our purchasing power will reach the point it is today.
So what will happen to the markets?
Prices in markets long ago It will start to rise, we will probably see faster increases compared to foreign currency. First of all, personnel costs will increase. Therefore, there will be a change in prices. Manufacturers’ costs minimum wage increase It will increase with . It will be easier to explain this with examples.
Company A produces eggs. Let the employee cost be one fifth of the production cost. The employer cost per employee, which is currently approximately 15,762 TL, will increase in 2024. 23.503 TL happened. The employer’s employee cost also increased by 49.1%.
While the cost of the egg produced by company A is 5 lira, in this case 5.49 TL is happening. Who sells this egg for 8 liras and makes the profit in between? 50 cents Company B, which sets aside for salary, now has to pay for the salary to earn the same income. 74 cents needs to be separated.
Egg price in this case 8.73 TL will be; That is, if we don’t count payments such as rent, bills, and permits. In other words, if we consider examples such as the price of eggs, which increased by approximately 9% due to the increase in the minimum wage, we can expect price increases in markets to start earlier.
However, if the price increase remains below the minimum wage increase economically There will be some more relief. There is also a 25% restriction on rent increases, but how much is applied is controversial.
on the other hand Minister of Finance Mehmet ŞimşekIn his statements, he set his inflation target for the end of the year. 36% He explained as. 12-month inflation expectation in the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey forecasts 36% to 48% It took place between .
According to the CBRT’s forecast report, the expected dollar exchange rate at the end of 12 months 39.46 TL was. According to these estimates, the minimum wage increase will keep our purchasing power above today’s level until the end of the year.
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