Every week, Moritz Koch, head of the Handelsblatt office in Brussels, analyzes trends and conflicts, regulatory projects and strategic concepts from the inner workings of the EU. Because anyone interested in business needs to know what’s going on in Brussels. You can reach him at: [email protected]
War of attrition describes the wear and tear of material and morale at the front, firefights lasting weeks, months, even years over small scraps of land. In short: the reality in eastern Ukraine. But the war of attrition is also being fought in the hinterland, far beyond the range of artillery pieces.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is waging this war of attrition not only against Ukraine, but also against Europe. And he thinks he can win it. If you’re wondering why the Kremlin ruler is still showing no interest in peace talks despite the heavy losses suffered by the Russian invasion troops, you’ll find an explanation here.
The EU sanctions may have hit the Russian economy hard. But their political effectiveness is not only measured by their economic clout, but also by the stamina of the population. When Russian tolerance meets supposed European sensibility, his regime’s superiority will be proven: That’s Putin’s calculation.
The dictator thinks the Europeans are weak and decadent. And he knows how to feed their worries about economic hardship. More arms deliveries to the Ukrainian army would only prolong the war, Putin warns. The opposite is true, but the Kremlin is confident that as inflation concerns fester, European willingness to support Ukraine will diminish.
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Alongside the thinly veiled threats of nuclear escalation, playing on the fear of losing purchasing power is the most important weapon in the Kremlin’s arsenal of psychological warfare. The frustration over the high prices for petrol, gas and food cannot be contained in the long term with relief packages. Inflation is already beginning to affect rents, and Europe is threatened with a restless autumn.
Concerns about Russian disinformation are growing in Brussels
The troll armies in the service of the Russian regime stand ready to escalate tensions. Concern is growing in Brussels: EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen’s closest associates see the susceptibility to disinformation as the Achilles’ heel of European democracies.
The propaganda successes of the Russians in the Middle East and Africa show how helpless the Europeans still are in this field. Although the Russian blockade of Ukrainian ports is responsible for the looming global hunger crisis, the Russian lie that it is the Europeans who are fomenting misery with their sanctions is gaining ground in many regions of the world.
The Russian disinformation offensive receives friendly support from China’s state propagandists. Putin’s pact with Xi Jinping, made just before Russia invaded Ukraine, is yielding its first geopolitical return.
When Putin gave the order for the invasion, the Europeans surprised Moscow and Beijing with their determination. They supplied weapons, imposed sanctions and, together with the USA, forged an international alliance to outlaw aggressive war. Now, in the second phase of the war, the EU must surprise the autocrats with perseverance.
The war will only end when Putin realizes he cannot win. That also means: The time game in the delivery of modern weapon systems, which is currently being played in the German Chancellery, is dangerous. It prolongs the war even further and gives Russia the opportunity to wear Europe down in an economic war of attrition.
More: “Old Europe” versus “New Europe”: The EU is mistrusted.