Matrixport analyst Markus Thielen surprisingly diverged from the general consensus in the market, predicting that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will reject all Bticoin spot ETF proposals in January. Despite ongoing discussions and revised prospectuses, Thielen highlights a critical need that, in his view, has yet to be met, casting a shadow over the future of these ETF applications. In this case, he conveys his expectations for the Bitcoin price. Here are the details…
Political dynamics are important for Bitcoin price
In a recent report, Matrixport analyst Markus Thielen outlines his perspective on the potential rejection of Bitcoin spot ETF proposals by the SEC. Thielen highlights the impact of political dynamics and compliance concerns, suggesting that despite the potential benefits for the crypto industry, SEC Chairman Gensler remains cautious and demands tighter compliance from the industry.
According to Thielen, the SEC chairman’s reservations stem from his belief that the crypto space needs stronger regulatory measures. SEC Chairman Gensler noted that he is not currently embracing the crypto industry and expressed doubts about the approval of bitcoin spot ETFs. Thielen predicted a possible rejection in January, stating that the industry may have to wait until the second quarter of 2024 for a more positive outcome.
We could drop to $36,000 if spot Bitcoin ETF is rejected
If the SEC rejects spot bitcoin ETF applications this month, Thielen expects significant consequences for the crypto market. In particular, he expects gradual liquidations as billions of dollars of perpetually long Bitcoin futures unwind. This could lead to a significant 20% drop in Bitcoin price, returning the price to the $36,000 to $38,000 range. As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $44,562, marking a significant increase of 5% since the beginning of the year and 65% in the last three months. Despite potential short-term volatility following the SEC rejection, Thielen maintains his bullish outlook for 2024 by leveraging historical patterns and Bitcoin mining cycles.
As a result, the crypto industry is preparing for a pivotal moment as Matrixport analyst Markus Thielen challenges the consensus regarding SEC approval for Bitcoin spot ETFs. Potential rejection could affect Bitcoin’s short-term value by triggering market volatility and gradual liquidations. However, Thielen offers a silver lining, predicting a bullish outlook for 2024, highlighting historical trends and resilience in the face of regulatory uncertainties. Investors remain uneasy as they await the SEC’s decision and its potential impacts on the broader crypto world.
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