While it was a miracle that the daily or even hourly weather forecasts were correct before, today, weekly, monthly and even annual weather forecasts can be made. Of course, these weather forecasts may not always be correct. So, how are weather forecasts made and why are the forecasts sometimes wrong?
Humanity has been trying to predict nature, the only force it cannot control since its existence. The most common forecasts on this subject are related to the weather. Weather forecasts do not only affect the picnic you will go on Sunday with your family. weather forecasts are taken seriously in many areas and, if necessary, measures are taken according to these estimates.
Alright, How is the weather forecast done? If so many people’s only job is to predict the weather, why do some predictions turn out to be wrong? Today, modern weather forecasts are made as a result of models prepared by meteorologists on computers. But we are talking about nature, no matter how powerful and smart computers you use, even a little wind can create a butterfly effect.
What is the weather?
There is a layer of gas and vapor on our Earth that we call the atmosphere. This layer consists of nitrogen, oxygen and water vapor. The structure is completely Although it consists of gas When we look at it from afar, we see it moving just like a liquid. These seemingly simple gas movements create the natural events we call weather.
When cold air, which is dense and does not hold much moisture, and warm air regions, which are less dense and retain more moisture, combine facades form and it rains. Convectional precipitation occurs when warm, humid air rises. The variation of such gas, liquid and temperature states plays a major role in weather forecasting.
How is the weather forecast made?
Ground radars, weather balloons, airplanes, satellites, ocean buoys and many more devices almost anywhere in the world atmospheric movements and climate effects such as temperature, pressure, humidity and wind speed. instantaneously following. All these data form the basis of weather forecasts.
Before modern forecasting, meteorologists analyzed this data, evaluated it, and made a forecast. Today, however, all these data Weather models are created by processing on powerful computers owned by universities, private enterprises and public institutions.
If computers do everything, don’t think why meteorologists are needed. Because the obtained These experts also determine how thousands of different data will be processed by the computer. In prediction models, not all data is presented in soup. Different data are used for different models. So the human touch of the expert is always needed.
Why are weather forecasts wrong?
We’ve been officially forecasting the weather since the early 1800s. With the developments over time As a result of getting to know the atmosphere and nature better, predictions are getting more and more pinpointed. So much so that a 4-day weather forecast made today is much more accurate than the daily forecast made 30 years ago.
When creating a model with data obtained from atmosphere and climate effects The world is divided into squares. Some squares are small, some are large. Large squares give much longer-term but imprecise results, while small squares give much shorter-term but almost certain results.
Weather forecast models are tried to be made by calculating many unpredictable data, but above all, It is impossible to know when unpredictable events will occur. While everything is going as predicted in the model area, a wind blowing from a completely different place can create a butterfly effect and turn all the predictions upside down.
Prediction publishers also have a fair share of deception in this regard. 30% chance of rain and 70% chance of rain ‘Today it will rain.’ of course, the prediction will appear to be wrong. A similar phenomenon occurs in large areas. E.g; It was said that it will rain in Ankara, but it does not rain in your area. But you don’t know that another district is flooding.
How is the weather forecast made in Turkey?
Although it receives data support from many different private, public institutions and organizations, it is in charge of weather forecasting in our country. The official government agency is the General Directorate of Meteorology. According to 2019 figures, 1636 ground stations, 74 airport stations and 83 sea stations in our country collect the necessary data for weather forecasting models.
All these automatic stations are used to monitor the conditions such as temperature, pressure, wind speed, sun exposure, soil temperature, humidity, precipitation. they measure value. The measurements in question are transferred to computers by expert meteorologists, as is the case all over the world, and weather forecast models are prepared.
Is it possible to make much more accurate weather forecasts?
Just as we were wrong about daily weather forecasts 30 years ago, we can now make nearly perfect weekly forecasts. In the near future, we will be able to make much longer-term and precise weather forecasts. We will definitely do it because technology is developing and thanks to scientific studies, we get to know the atmosphere and the Earth much more closely.
Forecasting the weather is not psychic. After all, there are some data and Like all scientific studies These data are also analyzed by experts. The only difference is that the results are obtained so quickly that right and wrong can be confused. The faster the more forecast models are created, the more accurate the announced weather forecasts will be.
How are weather forecasts made? Why are the predictions wrong? We answered curious questions such as, and talked about the details you need to know about weather forecasts. Let us remind you that the unusual relationship between rheumatic pain and rain is not one of the modern weather forecasting models.