As we approach the next Bitcoin halving event, which is scheduled for Saturday, April 20 at approximately 01:00 Turkey time, Bitcoin It’s worth taking a look at how the price reacted before and after previous halvings.
Historically, the year following the halving has seen significant increases in Bitcoin’s price:
- 2012: 8.839%
- 2016: 285%
- 2020: 548%
The month following the halving saw more mixed results:
- 2012: 9%
- 2016: -10%
- 2020: 6%
While the data we have is limited, an interesting pattern emerges: The market is pricing in the short-term impact of the halving but underestimating the long-term impact.
Former Bitmex CEO Arthur Hayes shared his thoughts on the upcoming Bitcoin halving in a Medium post last week. cryptocurrency While discussing the halving, which is seen as a bullish catalyst for the markets, he said:
“I agree that this will raise prices in the medium term; However, price movements immediately before and after may be negative.”
Hayes also noted:
“The narrative that halving is positive for crypto prices is well established. When most market participants agree on a particular outcome, the opposite often occurs.
“I believe that Bitcoin and crypto prices will generally decline during the halving period.”
*This is not investment advice.
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