Berlin, Washington It will be a difficult US trip that Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock begins on Tuesday. At the end of the week she will also meet with her American counterpart Antony Blinken, with whom the Green politician is said to have a very good relationship.
But first on the agenda is a visit to the US state of Texas – and a meeting there with Republican Governor Greg Abbott. The 65-year-old is a kind of anti-Baerbock: As a radical opponent of abortion, he is accused of massively restricting women’s rights. He is also a climate change denier.
Baerbock’s trip is part of the federal government’s preparations in the event that Donald Trump, or another Republican, becomes President of the United States next year. In discussions with US diplomats, there is hardly any other topic for top German politicians these days than an impending victory for the Republicans next year. The term “Trump-proofing” comes up again and again in Berlin, i.e. a kind of insurance in the event of a Republican election victory.
Even today, German government officials refer to Trump’s election as US President in 2016 as “zero hour.” Ultimately, he divided the USA and Germany like no president before him.
Officially, no German government representative wants to imagine a re-election of the ex-president, who has now been accused several times. But behind the scenes, diplomats and government representatives are preparing for the second “zero hour,” according to information from Handelsblatt.
It is also a lesson from how Trump’s election victory in 2016 overwhelmed the federal government at the time. Nobody had solid contacts with Trump or his inner circle of advisors.
The strategy now is to make contacts everywhere – at the state level, at the city level and with the American economy. And significantly earlier than in the last election. Baerbock is therefore also taking the mayor of Leipzig, the sister city of Houston in Texas, with her on her trip.
Former German ambassador seeks contact with republican hardliners
Michael Link, the federal government’s transatlantic coordinator, has been meeting with representatives from the Republican side for months. He says: Regardless of who sits in the White House, Germany needs a “transatlantic safety net. That means good, reliable contacts at all levels from the states to Congress.”
In July he traveled to the heavily Republican US states of Oklahoma and Arkansas, where he met with the local governors Kevin Stitt and Sarah Huckabee Sanders. Stitt is considered ultra-conservative, Huckabee Sanders was Trump’s press secretary.
>> Read here: TV debate – This is how the Republican field is being reshuffled in the primary election campaign
Emily Haber, until recently the German ambassador to the USA, also consciously intensified contact with top Republican politicians, conservative think tanks and interest groups. Networking with all camps of the political spectrum has always been part of the task of German diplomats abroad. But under Haber the exchange seemed even more strategic, even more targeted.
During the ex-president’s term in office, relations between the USA and Germany were very strained.
(Photo: dpa)
But Haber went so far with her message that she even met with the most radical. A few weeks ago, the arch-conservative “Faith and Freedom Coalition” held its annual conference in Washington.
A core goal of the evangelical organization is a federal ban on abortion; Trump, Ron DeSantis, Mike Pence and other Republican candidates were cheered in the ballroom of the Hilton Hotel. An event like this is ideal for better understanding the conservative movement in the USA – one table was reserved for representatives of the German embassy.
>> Read here: US President addresses old age for the first time – Biden biographer believes early withdrawal is possible
Contacting us is not without risk. Building connections at all levels is important, says Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook, expert on German-American relations at the Bertelsmann Foundation, to Handelsblatt. “At the same time, German politicians must not associate with them, especially with those who take extreme positions.”
Republican states are important trading partners
Former Transport Minister Andreas Scheuer, who met with the Republican governor of Florida and possible presidential candidate DeSantis, recently caused a lot of criticism. DeSantis is considered a right-wing hardliner, but the CSU politician only had words of praise for him. The Republican was a “straightforward, friendly and dynamic politician,” said Scheuer, and a “successful governor.”
Hardly any German politician can avoid networking with Republican governors – even if the tone is different. Florida, like Texas, is extremely important for German industry; the states are among Germany’s largest trading partners.
Other members of the federal government also maintain their contacts in the Republican party; Berlin feels better prepared for Trump II than for his first presidency.
In government circles, however, the limits of networking are also seen: As with his last presidency, Trump will not recruit his team primarily from those who have established themselves, such as think tankers or politicians, but rather from characters like Steve Bannon was primarily a TV personality before Trump made him chief strategist in the White House.
Trump’s possible term in office endangers future aid to Ukraine
In conversations with government representatives, major concerns continue to arise: about Trump’s continued strength in the candidate polls, about the radicalization of the Republican Party and also about Joe Biden’s old age, which is perceived as a factor of uncertainty.
Fears are also growing in Berlin that the USA under Trump could stop supporting Ukraine in the war against Russia. And even if Biden were to be defeated by a Republican other than Trump: In terms of foreign policy, the Republican Party has become more isolationist and Trumpism has become deeply entrenched. For example, aid to Ukraine is rejected by the vast majority of Republican presidential candidates.
The USA has long been urging Germany to increase its defense spending. “Even if the Democrats continue to rule in the White House after the election, US financial support for Ukraine will decrease, says Bertelsmann expert Clüver Ashbrook. The Republicans would gain influence in Congress and in the internal party primary election campaign, aid for the country attacked by Russia would be viewed critically.
According to surveys, support among the American population is also declining significantly. “The Europeans will have to dig significantly deeper into their pockets. The federal government must prepare for this now,” says Clüver Ashbrook.
More: Why Biden and Trump have no alternative