The US economy grew above expectations. Following the latest data, gold prices fell to the lowest levels of the session. Meanwhile, inflation also came in warmer than consensus forecasts. Amid these developments, hot gold predictions came from analysts.
USA grew above expectations, gold prices fell
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced Thursday that preliminary third-quarter Gross Domestic Product data showed the economy expanded by 4.9%. Therefore, this rate was above economists’ expectations of 4.3%. Meanwhile, the Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index was 2.9%, above the consensus expectation of 2.5% and the second quarter final value of 2.1%. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, came in at 2.4%, slightly below the 2.5% consensus and well below the second-quarter forecast of 3.7%.
cryptokoin.comAs you follow from , gold was sold after the GDP data. Thus, it fell to the lowest levels of the session. Spot gold hit $1,974.73, the lowest level of the session, in the minutes following the release of the data.
HSBC agold tguessforward: Gold on defense will stay!
Caught in the twin grip of higher US yields and a strengthening USD, gold may remain on the defensive in the near term unless geopolitical risks increase, according to HSBC analysts. However, rising geopolitical risks will likely help support the gold price. In this context, analysts make the following assessment:
We are not convinced that the rally can be sustained beyond the near term. Oil prices fell for three consecutive days. It is difficult to predict that the demand for gold due to geopolitical risk will increase if oil prices soften. Therefore, this may be of key importance. Gold has historically been sensitive to US real yields. Moreover, although there was a rupture in this relationship, it had reemerged. It will probably put more pressure on gold. This will likely limit gold rallies as we expect the USD to continue strengthening. It may even push gold down even further. Increasing geopolitical and commercial risks are playing an increasingly supportive role in gold prices. It is also engineering rallies that are likely to remain high in 2024.
The price of gold will be determined by war, not data!
The US economy probably grew at the fastest pace in the last two years in the third quarter. Meanwhile, Israel carried out an operation in the north of the Gaza Strip on Thursday. Analysts are monitoring the Israel-Hamas conflict to assess the war’s potential repercussions in the Middle East and beyond. For gold forecasts, Brian Lan, managing director of GoldSilver Central in Singapore, shares the following comment:
I don’t think the data will have much impact on the market, especially precious metal prices. Because war is still at the center.
The impact of geopolitical events on gold is short-lived
The shiny metal is a safe haven used to protect against political and economic uncertainties. On the other hand, since it is a non-returning asset, it is very sensitive to interest rates. Therefore, rising interest rates cause it to lose its appeal. Metals Focus General Manager Nikos Kavalis explains his gold predictions following the latest developments as follows:
The Fed clearly sees higher interest rates as a way to rein in inflation. The impact of geopolitical events on gold is generally short-lived compared to macro events or financial disasters that could force global authorities to implement very aggressive monetary and fiscal policies.
Gold Predictions: Gold continues to threaten to break
A.We also need to dissolve some of the excess foam!
Technical analyst Christopher Lewis evaluates the technical picture of gold. Gold markets rose slightly during Thursday’s trading session. Because we are trying to reach the $2,000 level. If we break above this level, then it is possible to see the $2,050 level. All else being equal, this is definitely a market that looks like it’s trying to move higher. But we got to this area so quickly that we also need to resolve some of the excess foam.
All else being equal, there are plenty of geopolitical issues that could continue to push gold higher. Most importantly, the war in the Middle East. However, it is also possible for gold to be sold sharply if tensions suddenly drop. Judging by the current situation, the hammer in the Tuesday session looks like an area you need to pay close attention to. If we break below this zone, this will likely open gold to oversold. At this point, the market is likely to look below the 50-Day EMA.
Attention: There will be back and forth movements in the short term
Overall, I think this market continues to be noisy. For gold forecasts, it is necessary to say that we are essentially consolidated in the short term. Sooner or later, we will receive an impulsive candlestick that tells us which direction to go. The market will continue to be a market where you have to be very careful. For this reason, you need to keep your position size reasonable. Because volatility will likely continue to be a major factor in this market.
When you look at the gold market, pay close attention to bond yields. Because if they start to rise, it will put downward pressure on the gold market. Often people talk about the negative correlation between the US dollar and gold. But actually the culprit is probably bond yields. Higher bond yields push the US dollar higher, all else equal. So everything goes full circle. I predict the next few days will be the same back and forth, unless there is a sudden headline in the news.
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