Bitcoin price has been falling since November 10 ATH. Market-wide losses exceeded 20% compared to last week. Solana (SOL) is the biggest loss at 40% among the top 100 cryptocurrencies paralleled by technical problems in the network. Oversold may be ready for a relief bounce, but a bull trap for the altcoin market could occur if the bull volume cannot be sustained. Let’s start with the developments from the general market and the expectations of the experts. BTC, LUNA, ATOM, ACH, FTM and LEO technical analysis will be our next stops.
4 altcoins to watch this week
Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $34,000 on January 21, and the ATH level on November 10, 2021 is 50% off from $69,000. Total crypto market capitalization fell 46% from the ATH level of $3 trillion in November 2021 to $1.6 trillion. It’s not just the crypto market that is facing sell-off by investors. The S&P 500 is also down 8% to date. However, gold outperformed, gaining around 1.76% over the period, strengthening its billing as a safe-haven asset.
A few individual traders who bought Bitcoin near its peak price have been voicing their concerns on social media. However, El Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele does not seem worried about the recent drop as he recently announced that he bought 410 Bitcoins at an average price of $36,585. Could bitcoin and altcoin projects witness a rebound after the recent carnage? Let’s examine the top 5 cryptocurrencies that could outperform if a relief rally starts, with technical analysis from analyst Rakesh Upadhyay.
Bitcoin (BTC) technical analysis
Bitcoin dropped below the support zone of $39,600 on Jan. 21 to $37,332, indicating panic selling. Selling continued on January 22 and the price dropped to $34,008.
The sharp decline over the past few days has pulled the RSI near 20, suggesting that selling may have been overkill in the short term. Usually, such oversold levels are followed by a consolidation or relief rally. Rescue attempts are likely to face strong resistance at higher levels. If the region between $37,332 and $39,600 turns into resistance, it will signal that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. The bears will then try to continue the downtrend and sink the BTC/USDT pair to the main support at $30,000. A break and close above the 20-day EMA ($41,427) will be the first indication that the bears are losing control.
The 4-hour chart of BTC shows that the pair is trading inside the descending channel. The bears pulled the price below the channel but failed to sustain lower levels. This indicates that the bulls pushing the price back into the channel are making strong purchases. According to the analyst, the pair could rally to the 20-day EMA, where the bears could pose a tough challenge again. If the price breaks down from this resistance and dips below $34,008, selling could intensify. Conversely, a break above the 20-day EMA could open the doors for a possible rise to the resistance line of the channel.
Terra (LUNA) technical analysis
Terra (LUNA) has been trading in the descending channel for the past few days. The price dropped to the support line of the channel on January 22, but the bulls bought this dip aggressively as seen from the long wick on the day’s candlestick.
The LUNA/USDT pair may attempt a pullback to the moving averages and then to the downtrend line of the channel. If the bulls pull the price above the channel, the analyst sets the following levels for the altcoin:
If the bulls break the channel, the pair may rise to $87.90 and later to $93.81. Contrary to this assumption, if the price drops from the current level or moving averages, it will indicate that the bears are selling on every small rally. The pair can then retest the support line of the channel. A break below this support could accelerate selling.
The 4-hour chart shows that the aid rally has reached the 20-day EMA, an important level to watch out for. The marginally downward sloping 20-day EMA and RSI just below the midpoint point to a minor advantage for the bears. If the bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair could attempt a rally towards the downtrend line of the channel. Alternatively, if the price drops from the current level, the bears will take their chances and try to drag the pair to the support line of the channel.
Cosmos (ATOM) price predictions
cryptocoin.com Cosmos (ATOM), which we included in our analysis, fell from the overhead resistance at $40 on January 17 and dropped to the 200-day SMA ($27.57) on January 22.
The ATOM/USDT pair has rebounded sharply from the 200-day SMA, indicating that the bulls are defending this level aggressively. Buyers will now try to push the price up to the 20-day EMA ($35.91). A break and close above this level may indicate that the correction may be over. The pair could later rise to the critical overhead resistance at $44.80. This positive view will be invalidated if the price drops from the current level or the 20-day EMA and falls below the 200-day SMA. Such a move could open the door for a possible drop to $20.
ATOM’s 4-hour chart shows a double top formation closing below $34 with a breakout. This apex pattern has a target of $23.20, and the pair settled to an intraday low of $27.31. The relief rally from the lower levels is facing stiff resistance at the breakout level at $34. If the bulls push and sustain the price above this resistance, the pair could rally to the downtrend line. A break and close above this line will indicate a possible change in trend.
Meet the fiat bridge altcoin project Alchemy Pay (ACH)
Alchemy Pay (ACH) aims to bridge the gap between the crypto and fiat worlds by enabling seamless transactions between the two economies. Its latest partnership with MEXC Global will offer users a variety of payment options in Japan, Korea and Indonesia. Alchemy Pay has also worked with Algorand and Avalanche to bring direct fiat payment channels to their networks such as Visa, Mastercard, PayPal, and various local payment channels.
A new partnership with NIUM will help altcoin project Alchemy Pay cut costs for customers in NIUM’s more than 190 countries. NIUM’s licenses in financially important regions such as the UK, Europe, USA, Singapore, Hong Kong and Australia will help Alchemy Pay enter these markets. The network has added support for Dai following a new collaboration with MakerDAO and also announced a partnership with IoTeX (IOTX). The integration enables IOTX to be used for business-to-business (B2B) or customer-to-business (C2B) payments around the world. The project’s multiple partnerships have helped it expand its support to more than 70 countries with 300 payment channels reaching over 2 million traders. ACH was also listed on the Binance exchange on January 10, making it easier for a larger pool of investors to trade the cryptocurrency.
ACH has been falling steadily since reaching ATH in August 2021. This shows that traders are profiting from the rallies.
The ACH/USDT pair dropped below the strong support zone from $0.056 to $0.045 on Jan. 21, but a minor positive is that the bears failed to develop this advantage. This indicates strong demand at lower levels. If buyers pull the price above the overhead zone, a few aggressive bears that may have sold recently could be trapped. This could cause a short squeeze that could push the pair to the downtrend line of the descending triangle. The bullish momentum could start with a breakout and close above the triangle. On the other hand, if the price drops from the general zone, it will suggest a change in sentiment from buying on dips to selling on rallies. The bears will then try to push the price below $0.03 and continue the downtrend.
Phantom (FTM) technical analysis
Phantom (FTM) broke above the overhead resistance of $3.17 on Jan. 16 but failed to clear the next hurdle at $3.48. This may have attracted traders’ profit bookings and caused a sharp pullback.
Altcoin bears pushed the price below the 50-day SMA ($2.14) on Jan. 22, but failed to drop the FTM/USDT pair to the 200-day SMA ($1.57). Strong buying by the bulls pushed the pair back above the 50-day SMA. The bulls will now try to hold and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, higher levels may retest, according to the analyst. Conversely, if the price drops from the current level or the 20-day EMA, it indicates that traders are selling in rallies. The bears will then try to push the pair below the 200-day SMA.
The 4-hour chart shows the formation of a head and shoulders pattern with a target of $1.70. The pair bounced off $1.77 and reached the 20-day EMA, which is acting as a stiff resistance. If the price drops from the current level, the bears will try to continue the downtrend and push the pair down to $1.30. Conversely, if the price rises and persists above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rally as far as the neckline of the bearish pattern and then rally to $3.00.
Altcoin UNUS SED LEO (LEO) price prediction
UNUS SED LEO (LEO) broke below the ascending channel formation on Jan. 21 and closed but a minor positive development is that the bulls are buying lower and trying to push the price back above the moving averages.
If the bulls are successful, the LEO/USD pair could retest the overhead resistance at $3.92. A break and close above this level could indicate a resumption of the uptrend. The pair may then rise to the resistance line of the channel. The pair could gain momentum if the bulls push the price above the channel. This positive view will be invalidated if the price drops from the current level and drops below $3.37. The price could then decline to strong support at the 200-day SMA ($3.19).
The 4-hour chart of LEO shows that the bulls have repeatedly tried but failed to push and sustain the price above the overhead resistance at $3.85. This may have pulled the profit reservation, which could cause the strong support to drop at $3.40. The sharp recovery of $3.40 indicates aggressive buying at this level. The bulls will now try to push the price towards $3.85. If the bulls clear the top zone of $3.85 to $3.92, the uptrend could resume. This positive view will be invalidated on a break and it will close below $3.40.
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