The Fed is still in the midst of historic rate increases. Therefore, the gold market is facing more losses. But signs of a potential Fed easing are likely to emerge in the future. When this happens, the price of the precious metal will enter rally mode. In this context, ING Bank shared its price forecasts for the 4 quarters of 2023 separately for the price of gold.
How about the gold price?
Gold has fallen more than 10% in the past year. This is disappointing data for those who use gold as a hedge against inflation. December Comex futures are trading at $1,637.40 an ounce, up 0.24% on the day. Much of this year’s losses are due to the Fed’s aggressive policy tightening, which triggered a strong rally in the US dollar. The US dollar index is trading near 20-year highs throughout the summer and September. While these drivers are still going, there is only pain in the near term for the precious metal.
Warren Patterson, head of commodity strategy at ING, spoke about the price of gold. The strategist says that given the amount of uncertainty and high inflation at the moment, many in the market think gold prices should be well supported. “But that is not the case,” he adds. He then points out that spot gold has been trading at its lowest levels in more than two years. According to him, the price has dropped more than 20% from its last high, putting the precious metal in a bear market.
ING: “Follow these developments for bullish gold”
“The strengthening of the US dollar and the tightening of the central bank weighed heavily on the gold market,” said Warren Patterson, ING’s head of commodities strategy. He then stressed that further tightening would support more downside pressure in the near term. The analyst says, “US dollar dominance has hit sentiment across commodities. cryptocoin.com As we reported, the dollar is trading close to its highest level in 20 years. According to Patterson, gold is among those injured by this blow.
According to Patterson, all of these signs are negative for gold. However, ING’s medium-term outlook is more constructive. Because the first signs of relaxation from the FED seem to increase gold prices. ING says that inflation will start to fall in 2023 and we will see a reduction in interest rates in the second half of the year. In addition, he states that a recession may increase the demand for gold. According to the bank, gold’s price rise depends entirely on these events.
“Gold will be at these levels in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters”
In addition, ING underlines that central banks around the world have increased their gold reserves due to the current economic situation. Accordingly, in the second quarter of 2022, central banks accumulated 180 tons of precious metal. ING also cited the Russian crisis as a reason for central banks to turn to gold. He then shared the price levels he expects to reach throughout 2023 for the precious metal.
ING predicts that the gold price will end 2022 at around $1,650 per ounce. According to their forecasts for next year, they expect gold to reach $1,730 in the first quarter. In addition, the bank forecasts that it will increase to $1,780 in Q2, $1,840 in Q3 and $1,900 in Q4.
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