Gold Price Goes To These Numbers!

US intelligence officials assess that Russia has now reached 70% of its military readiness to invade Ukraine. US officials say the analysis is based on intelligence, but due to the sensitivity of the information, details of the evidence for this assessment cannot be disclosed to the media. With Michelle Makori, editor-in-chief of Kitco News, former Lieutenant Harold Kempfer, CEO of Global Risk Intelligence & Planning, and Robert Ryan, Chief Strategist of the Commodities and Energy Strategy service at BCA Research, the possibility of Russian invasion of Ukraine, markets and gold discussing the effects on the price. cryptocoin.com We have prepared for our readers.

Crucial issue for gold price: Ukraine tension

Harold Kempfer, CEO of Global Risk Intelligence & Planning, says Russia has the manpower to launch an invasion of Ukraine, but logistical challenges remain:

Russia can enter Ukraine. They certainly have enough troops, they have all the support weapons they need in terms of battleships, missiles, artillery. So they can definitely start an invasion. One of the things I’m looking at is are there any forward deployed refuels? Fuel sources are the only thing not in the reports. However, recent satellite photos show they are moving a lot of new material towards their base camps across the border. So, it looks like they’re getting ready.

Harold Kempfer notes that direct military intervention from the United States against Russia is unlikely within Ukraine, but that Ukraine has already received intelligence and assistance in strategic planning from the United States and its allies:

What we’re going to do is probably give Ukraine a lot of weapons and other things. I don’t think any of the NATO partners will send military forces to Ukraine. However, we currently have military trainers in Ukraine. We are probably helping them develop the Ukrainian defense plan.

“Sanctions on technology and capital are possible”

Harold Kempfer therefore states that Moscow will face Ukrainian forces trained and briefed by US military forces, and that US-backed Ukrainian defenses could possibly lead to attrition of Russian forces. He also states that the possible action against Russia from the West would be sanctions, adding that Russian President Vladimir Putin is probably only looking for concessions at this point:

In my view, Putin will try to get as many concessions as he can and may start trading land for concessions. But if he crosses this line to Ukrainian territory, there will be major sanctions.

Robert Ryan, on the other hand, says the sanctions will slow Russian oil production. “Recently, we had to lower our estimate of how much Russia will contribute to the restoration of OPEC supply, because they don’t seem like they can meet their quota each month,” said Robert Ryan, noting the issue of technology and capital sanctions:

If they are subjected to yet another type of sanction on technology and capital, they will likely find it increasingly difficult to restore and expand production, which is their long-term goal.

Harold Kempfer: Turkey can actually play a big role

However, Harold Kempfer thinks that military tensions between Russia and NATO forces could take place in the Black Sea in the worst case scenario. “We’re looking at a scenario where the navy could possibly engage in some kind of conflict,” said Kempfer, so he thinks Turkey could actually play a big role. Harold Kempfer comments:

If there is a Turkish naval clash with Russian forces somewhere in the Black Sea, I cannot predict where it will lead. It is unlikely that the United States and its allies will intervene through direct military action against Russian forces, let alone a direct attack on Turkey or any NATO member. I don’t think any of the NATO partners, especially Germany, would want to do that either.

Harold Kempfer cites the reason for this as Germany’s heavy dependence on Russia for important minerals besides natural gas. Russia has an enormous amount of nickel exported. One of the reasons why Germany is so dependent on Russian natural gas is that they got rid of coal power plants and they said that after Fukushima, they will get rid of nuclear power plants for political reasons. Harold Kempfer explains:

They want to go to renewable sources. Renewable energy means you need a lot of batteries. Batteries require lithium and nickel, cobalt and other things like that. Russia has an important role in the nickel market, especially in Europe. I think about 80%, they supply nickel to Europe. This is huge.

“If the tension increases, oil will fly, the price of gold will go above $ 2,000”

Robert Ryan, on the other hand, states that a direct military confrontation in the open with the US military and NATO allies is a scenario that the Kremlin wants to avoid at all costs. But Ryan says that if tensions escalate between the US and Russia, the conflict will mostly be in cyberspace:

The US and NATO are imposing as a military power, so if that happens, I think it will be over very quickly. Oil prices skyrocket and then fall, just as they did in the 1990 Iraq War. The caveat here is that we live in an era of cyber warfare, so it wouldn’t be surprising if Russian submarines start cutting all the wires to Europe to shut down the internet. There could be a massive cyberattack that crashes the power grid. In this case, NATO and the USA will have to respond.

Robert Ryan notes that if Russia did indeed invade Ukraine, crude oil would lead the move and markets would react immediately:

The market will notice when you have 100,000 troops at the border and you see the fuel needed for refueling start to move. Only the pure response to this provocative action will likely push crude above $100.

Robert Ryan states that if the Ukrainian tensions escalate, safe-haven assets will recover and gold will go to $2,000:

My guess is that gold gets an opportunity here and there will be a struggle to get the yellow metal. Depending on how bad things get, it’s the strength of the dollar that limits the rally. The price of gold goes to $2,000, but I don’t know how far behind $2,000.

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