In spring 2024, real gross domestic product will hardly be higher than before the outbreak of the pandemic in early 2020.
(Photo: dpa)
Dusseldorf Germany should be spared the economic slump that was considered certain a few months ago. The Handelsblatt Research Institute (HRI) assumes that the economy will not slip into recession, as suggested by the rising Ifo business climate published just before Christmas.
After 1.8 percent growth in 2022, the HRI economists expect an increase of 0.2 percent for the new year. This means that the short-term expectations of the HRI are slightly better than those of most other economic research institutes, most of which are predicting a more or less slight decline in economic output for 2023. For 2024, however, the HRI is at the lower end of the forecast range with expected growth of just 0.9 percent.
In short: the crisis will be less severe, but will probably last longer than hoped. Prices continue to rise, the economy is stagnating – Germany is stuck in stagflation.
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