Berlin Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) is traveling to Kiev and Moscow at a particularly sensitive time. The situation is assessed as “extremely dangerous”, according to German government circles. The “very worrying overall picture” will characterize Scholz’s talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Monday and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday.
US intelligence circles expect that a Russian attack on Ukraine could be imminent in the coming week. If that were to happen, the chancellor would be the last politician to be in Moscow in peacetime.
Scholz will have lunch with Putin longer on Tuesday and will make it clear in Moscow that an invasion would have “very serious consequences,” government circles said. But he will also emphasize the willingness to engage in dialogue. It was said that it was unlikely that on Tuesday evening after the meeting “in a completely different game”.
Speculations about a possible moratorium, after which Ukraine would be barred from joining NATO for a period of time, were rejected in government circles. NATO is an “alliance of open doors”. This principle cannot be thrown overboard.
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In government circles it was once again emphasized how united NATO is in its attitude towards Russia. The trips to Kiev and Moscow are part of a coordinated crisis diplomacy. Scholz met the three Baltic heads of state and EU Council President Michel last week, and on Saturday he spoke to French President Emmanuel Macron after his phone call with Putin.
Putin and Scholz have only met briefly so far, for example at G20 summits, but there have not yet been longer one-to-one talks. Government circles said it was still being checked whether Scholz would deposit a PCR test as requested by Russia. French President Macron had refused to deposit a PCR test lest his DNA fall into Russia’s hands. Putin and Macron then sat at a huge table at a great distance.
Hope in the SPD for relaxation
The foreign policy working group of the SPD parliamentary group meets on Sunday evening for an informal dinner and on Monday morning for a closed meeting. The main topic will be the Ukraine crisis.
“There cannot and must not be any military conflict management in the middle of Europe,” said SPD foreign policy expert and member of the Bundestag Ralf Stegner to the Handelsblatt. “Therefore, all diplomatic means must be used to replace the heated atmosphere with troop deployments, martial manoeuvres, arms deliveries and disinformation propaganda through talks and negotiations behind closed doors.” That is the most important task for Germany together with its allies.
The expectation of Scholz’s upcoming visit to Putin in the Kremlin is correspondingly high. “The goal must be relaxation and common security,” said Stegner. “The visit of Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz to Moscow and Kiev also serves this purpose.”
The German economy in Russia also has “great hopes” for Scholz’s upcoming visit to Moscow. “The conflict surrounding Ukraine must definitely be resolved peacefully and with the means of diplomacy,” said the President of the German-Russian Chamber of Commerce Abroad (AHK), Rainer Seele, on Sunday.
Seele warned against cutting off contacts and freezing projects. This does not reduce tensions, but “more confrontation”. The manager spoke out in favor of intensifying contacts. “Even in the darkest times of the Cold War, the German economy was always a bridge between Germany and the Soviet Union.”
Despite the sanctions due to the Ukraine conflict and despite the restrictions imposed by the corona pandemic, German companies have invested around 7.6 billion euros in Russia over the past five years, the chamber said.
However, close contacts between German business and Russia have repeatedly drawn criticism – for example, because of a meeting between German business representatives and Putin planned for early March. Deputy FDP parliamentary group leader Lukas Köhler told the “Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung” (Saturday) that in view of Russia’s “blatant threats” against Ukraine, it would have been a “appropriate signal to Putin to cancel this year’s meeting and not give the Russian president a high-level platform of the kind that he usually knows how to use for his propaganda purposes”.
The compulsory tests for foreigners are also an issue in the Scholz-Putin talks
A spokesman for the Committee on Eastern European Economic Relations said that the Committee on Eastern European Economic Relations traditionally organizes an annual business meeting with Putin and ministers relevant to the economy to address current issues in economic relations. In 2021, the meeting was canceled at short notice due to the corona, planning for 2022 was underway again. “We can’t say more at the moment. As a matter of principle, we do not name the companies involved at such meetings.”
According to the AHK, German companies expect Scholz to also bring up the new compulsory medical tests for foreigners who want to work in Russia when he meets Putin. “German and foreign managers and engineers are exposed to a discriminatory and time-consuming procedure to the detriment of the investment climate, even though they are promoting investments in Russia in their home countries,” says AHK CEO Matthias Schepp.
Since January, foreigners living in Russia have had to undergo tests every three months, including for drugs, syphilis and other diseases, under a law signed by Putin. X-rays are also planned, which are controversial because of the dangerous radiation exposure.
Children from the age of six and spouses must also be tested. “The resentment among managers, engineers, scientists and researchers will remain great. The regulation should be suspended,” said Schepp.
More: After a phone call with Putin, Macron sees further opportunities for a political solution