The assessments are of great importance for the entire manufacturing industry, because chemicals and plastics are obtained from almost all industries.
In principle, the same picture emerges in chemistry itself: According to the VCI, the bottlenecks in raw materials and logistics in the industry have recently become more acute. 70 percent of the manufacturers were only able to deliver with a delay, 40 percent were unable to fulfill some orders at all. A third of the industry recently had to cut production, ten percent closed entire plants.
This triggers a chain reaction in some segments of the chemical industry, since the plants of many manufacturers are networked with one another. In addition to the raw material shortages, the burden of expensive gas has recently been added. Its price has risen 500 percent year-on-year. In chemistry, natural gas is the most important energy source and, after oil, the second most important raw material for products.
“Since our republic was founded, there has not been a situation in which the cost of energy was so high that it massively disrupted operations,” said VCI President Christian Kullmann. The situation will remain critical. “The majority of our companies do not believe that there will be any significant easing in energy costs in the coming year,” he adds.
This is not the only reason why chemical companies are expecting business to deteriorate. They also fear negative economic consequences from the new corona wave and a weakness in the entire German economy.
However, because international business is still going well, especially in Asia, the industry is anticipating sales growth of five percent to 231 billion euros in the coming year. This should also contribute to the fact that the chemical industry is largely able to pass on the burdens on the raw materials and energy side to customers through higher prices.
The processing industry must expect prices for chemicals and plastics to continue to rise over the next few months. Because many manufacturers, especially from specialty chemicals, pass on the costs with a delay and are now also striving to amend contracts so that they can adjust the sales prices more quickly to the jumps in energy costs. The Cologne-based Lanxess AG is planning this.
The price increases mostly succeed because the demand is high worldwide and the supply is limited. This year, chemicals and plastics have already become a total of 8.5 percent more expensive, in individual segments such as basic chemicals even well into double digits.
Overall, the industry will see sales growth of 15.5 percent to 220 billion euros in 2021.
This includes the business of German pharmaceutical companies. Their production volume will increase by 5.5 percent this year. However, the increase comes almost entirely from vaccine production.
In chemistry, too, it is currently evident that many customers are trying to buy more than they actually need. By building up stocks, they want to anticipate further price increases and, given the unpredictable end of the supply shortage, they want to have a certain degree of flexibility in production.
This phenomenon is particularly evident in the electrical industry. According to a survey by the industry association ZVEI, two out of three companies order more preliminary products than they need. The companies are thus fueling the current shortage even further.
Fear of a renewed economic deterioration due to the next corona wave is great in both industries. For VCI President Kullmann there is no way around compulsory vaccination to get out of the permanent crisis mode.
“I am clearly in favor of an imprint,” he said. “Because freedom also means responsibility for fellow human beings and society.”
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