Berlin An additional 25 gigawatts (GW) of capacity in gas-fired power plants: Federal Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) expects this to be the case by 2030. According to this, 50 new power plants in the 500-megawatt class would have to be built. But the value might be too deep.
Florian Haslauer, managing director of the consulting firm E.venture, which specializes in energy issues, assumes other orders of magnitude. “In order to ensure the supply, around 90 GW of hydrogen-capable gas-fired power plants must be available in 2040. Of this, 15 GW serve as grid reserve, 75 GW are available for the electricity market,” Haslauer calculates.
Additional gas power plants play a key role in the power supply system of the future. They should always be available when wind turbines and photovoltaic systems are not supplying sufficient electricity. They are therefore the back-up capacities of a power system based on renewable energies. Initially, they will be operated with natural gas, later with hydrogen.
“In the political debate, it is often said that between 15 and 25 GW of additional gas-fired power plant capacity will be required by 2030. In our opinion, the value is set significantly too low,” says Haslauer. “The need is grossly underestimated,” he sums up. This applies in particular if Germany wants to phase out coal by 2030.
Haslauer refers to an as yet unpublished study that his company has prepared. It defines the requirements for the future electricity market, which will be dominated by the use of renewable energies.
Electricity generation is not based on electricity demand
The E.venture study comes to the conclusion that if the electricity requirement is covered 100% by wind and photovoltaics, which is the goal in Germany for 2035, there will still be 5,000 hours too little electricity generated from renewable energy sources per year.
This can be explained as follows: Even if you have installed wind and solar power capacities to an extent that is sufficient to cover the electricity requirements for a year, the electricity generation will not be based on the electricity demand. Rather, there will be phases with an oversupply of wind and solar power. In these phases, the excess electricity will be converted into hydrogen, for example by electrolysis.
The federal government has ambitious targets for renewable energies.
(Photo: dpa)
On the other hand, there will be phases in which too little electricity is produced from renewable sources due to a lack of wind and sun. The power plants that will be operated with hydrogen in the future will then be needed for this.
The topic is of great political importance. The traffic light coalition has set itself the goal of developing a new electricity market model that takes account of the changes in the electricity supply system.
The discussion process “Platform for a climate-neutral electricity system” initiated by Habeck, which began in February, should provide clarity. Various interest groups from the fields of energy management, consumer protection, industry and civil society as well as politicians and scientists are involved. The aim is to develop an initial concept by the summer, which will then form the basis for political decisions.
The Federal Minister of Economics has initiated a discussion process on the future electricity system.
(Photo: via REUTERS)
Various models are under discussion. For example, suppliers who have power plant capacities available could be rewarded. The power plant operators would therefore generate income with their systems if they were not producing electricity. Such capacity market models had been discussed years ago, but did not become established in Germany.
Investors are holding back on gas-fired power plants
The incentives for the construction of new gas-fired power plants should already be in place by the end of the year. Potential investors are holding back at the moment. They fear that they will not be able to make any money with the new power plants, which are being used less and less as the proportion of wind and solar energy increases.
However, Haslauer assumes that there will be plenty of use for the new gas-fired power plants in the future. “It is by no means the case that the gas-fired power plants will only be used very rarely.”
More Handelsblatt articles on the subject of power supply:
In his opinion, there is no need for special incentives: “We don’t need a capacity market for gas-fired power plants. In bottleneck situations, there will be significant price swings that will make it possible to refinance the power plants.” However, politicians should not succumb to the temptation to react to the price swings with interventions.
In Haslauer’s opinion, however, the state should still offer some support: “We recommend that politicians relieve investors of part of their investment risk by awarding investment subsidies per installed megawatt hour via auction.”
E.venture puts the investment required for the system conversion at 750 to 1,000 billion euros by 2040. According to the study, the price of electricity will be two to three times the level of the pre-crisis period in the next 15 years.
More: Desperate search for guaranteed power plant output