Federal government considers situation “extremely dangerous”

Finance Minister Christian Lindner announced in an interview with the Handelsblatt that Western allies would take clear steps should Russian troops invade: “The Kremlin should not be subject to the misconception that it can cross political and territorial borders without paying a high price.” , he said. The commissioning of a pipeline is only one aspect. He did not want to give details of possible sanctions, for example against the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea.

Global attempts to prevent Russian troops from invading Ukraine are in full swing – even if the Kremlin speaks of “provocative speculation” and “hysteria”. “The West must now absolutely maintain the deterrent backdrop,” Nils Schmid, foreign policy spokesman for the SPD parliamentary group, told the Handelsblatt. During his visit to Moscow on Tuesday, Chancellor Olaf Scholz will make it clear that “German-Russian relations would be seriously damaged over the years if Russia were to take military action.”

Scholz travels to Ukraine on Monday and to Moscow for lunch with Vladimir Putin on Tuesday. He will make it clear that an invasion would have “very serious consequences,” government circles said on Sunday. But he will also emphasize the willingness to engage in dialogue. It is unlikely that the visit will completely change the situation.

Speculations about a moratorium, after which Ukraine would be barred from joining NATO for a period of time, were rejected in government circles. NATO is an “alliance of open doors”. This principle must endure.

Russian Eastern Europe expert Ivan Preobrazhensky said it was already clear to the Kremlin that Scholz’s announcements during his visit to Moscow would not be enough. Therefore, the answer is “a radically harsh reaction from February 16th possible”. Scholz will not provide a solution to Putin’s demands either. Among other things, Moscow is demanding written assurances that neither Ukraine nor Georgia will join NATO. Also, a NATO withdrawal from Eastern Europe to 1997 levels and the withdrawal of American nuclear weapons from Europe.

Ukraine in a Russian pincer grip

Among other things, the Russian military maneuvers in Belarus with 30,000 soldiers, which have been running since Thursday, are causing great uncertainty in the West. It will last until next Sunday. “In February it will be decided whether the war by Russia, which has so far been primarily hybrid, will also become conventional,” warns the CDU intelligence expert Roderich Kieswetter. He thinks the US intelligence service indications of a possible impending Russian attack on Ukraine are plausible, he told the Handelsblatt.

It is therefore right for the USA and the European countries to “use all precautionary measures and, if necessary, put their armed forces on increased alert”. According to Kieswetter, the decisive factor now is whether the escalation can be prevented by “credible deterrence” and “clever diplomacy”.

In the meantime, more than 30 states have called on their compatriots to leave Ukraine – and on Saturday the federal government as well. Some embassies in Kiev will be largely closed or – like the German consulate general in Dnipro in eastern Ukraine – relocated to the west of the country.

Russia has put Ukraine in a pincer grip: in addition to the large-scale maneuvers in northern Ukraine, in Belarus, others are taking place in the east on Russian territory and in the south around the occupied Crimean peninsula. The Russian Navy has declared large parts of the Black Sea off the coast of Ukraine a military zone. There, with Odessa and other ports, are the important export hubs for Ukrainian agricultural products such as wheat and steel.

Airlines are stopping connections

In total, Russia has now stationed 140,000 soldiers around Ukraine, according to Ukrainian intelligence sources. The Russian independent Conflict Intelligence Team reported that more armored units were being deployed close to the Ukrainian border.

In the meantime, the air connection to Ukraine is also becoming increasingly insecure. From Monday 3 p.m. Central European Time, aircraft over Ukraine will no longer be insured by the leading British aviation insurance companies, said Ukrainian MP Olexi Goncharenko according to government information.

The Ukraine itself does not want to block its airspace at the moment, according to the President’s Office in Kiev. Mykhailo Podoliak, an adviser to the president’s chief of staff, said the suspension of flights reminded him of a “partial blockade.”

The Dutch KLM has canceled all Ukraine flights. Lufthansa is monitoring the situation and considering stopping air traffic. At the moment there is no decision, the company said on request. Many foreign airlines have already changed their flight schedules so that their planes no longer stay overnight at Ukrainian airports. Ukrainian airline SkyUp has diverted flights to the Moldovan capital Chisinau instead of Kiev.

In addition, there is an impending oil embargo against the country, which the Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko has announced. He, like Moscow, claims that Ukraine is preparing an attack: “You are fools if you mess with Russia, and then we stop all supplies of fuel and electricity together with Russia,” said the Belarusian ruler.

To date, Ukraine has obtained 65 percent of its petrol, diesel, kerosene, heating oil and crude oil from Belarus and Russia. Expanding domestic oil processing would require importing more crude oil, but that would take a month to a month and a half, said Serhi Kujun, head of oil consultancy A-95. This is piquant because in the event of war Ukraine would need large amounts of fuel for tanks, personnel carriers, fighter jets and other military vehicles.

German economic aid for Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, on a visit to southern Ukraine where he observed Russia’s naval build-up, stressed that the most important thing is to avoid panic now. “She is the enemy’s best friend.” A day before Scholz’s arrival, he called on the European Union to impose preventive sanctions on Russia.

This was to “curb the Kremlin’s aggressive intentions,” he said in a phone conversation with European Council President Charles Michel. Ukraine is also demanding economic aid. The EU has already paid 1.2 billion euros in loan assistance to Kiev this year.

Scholz could make another offer for economic support for Ukraine on Monday, it said in Berlin. Foreign expert Schmid said: “Germany can do a lot to strengthen Ukraine’s resilience.” A new aid program by Germany together with the EU and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) makes sense. However, Berlin still does not want to deliver lethal weapons.

Scenario B: Persistent alarm condition

Whether Putin really wants a war is disputed even among Russian experts. A war is not only not necessary for Russia, but absolutely counterproductive, says Fyodor Lukyanov, chairman of the Foreign and Security Policy Council in Moscow. Security and foreign policy experts are therefore preparing for the scenario that if the conflict does not escalate in February, Moscow will keep it going throughout the year.

Ivan Timofeev, program director of the Valdai Forum think tank initiated by Putin, argued that a war would not solve Russia’s security problem, but would create new problems: “the high costs, the great damage caused by sanctions and Russia’s international isolation”. Instead, Putin’s current “demonstration of power” serves to get suggestions from the West for a new security architecture in Europe. But the western allies show no willingness to reward Russian aggression with concessions.

The danger of war is also growing because Russia is reacting with increasing displeasure after the recent high-level phone calls with Biden and Macron. Even Pope Francis was concerned about the news from Ukraine on Sunday. He called on the political leaders to make every conceivable peace effort.

More: Biden warns Putin against escalation