Famous billionaire and venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiyashared their forecasts and views on global markets.
Speaking in a new broadcast of the All-In Podcast, Palihapitiya thinks investors have already reckoned with the worst consequences of Russia-Ukraine tensions.
“I think we’re in the middle of what I call ‘melting’. So, there probably isn’t a lot of ‘bad news’ that hasn’t been priced in the next month or a half. What I’ve learned over the last few years is that markets don’t really care about the content of the news. They approach good news and bad news equally.
Therefore, this week was actually quite important because we got rid of two important events that created uncertainty in the markets. The event we mentioned earlier was actually constructive, as an opportunity to end the conflicts between Russia and Ukraine. Because if both sides were too far from each other, there would not even be a signal of such an agreement.
The second thing is with the news of Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve. Finally, they held their meeting. Interest ratesincreased by 25 basis points. But more importantly, they gave you a very prescriptive forecast of what the next year will be like for at least, possibly even two years.
And when you learned this information, you were able to reconsider all your expectations. What people are realizing is that inflation may actually start to calm down for the rest of the year. The economy is still pretty strong and we can actually afford interest rates between 2% and 2.5% and still have really good growth. So what we’ve seen in the last three or four is a reaction to the disappearance of uncertainty.”
Palihapitiya said its stocks and securities would not be tolerated unless Russia carried out a “low probability” chemical or nuclear attack. crypto marketsexpects it to rise further.
“Things could change if the war escalated even more unexpectedly. But the probability of such a chemical attack is very low, unless such events occur, the markets will continue to improve in the coming months.”
Palihapitiya noted that there were clear signs that retail investors had capitulated and divested in early March, further affecting his calculation that the markets were going to rise.
“Retail wasn’t really a good reference point, if you follow their trends and do the opposite of what they do, you’re likely to make money. Since the beginning of this year, retail has always been on the buyer side. In all those days, we all saw the results. Finally, at the beginning of March, retail finally delivered, and that’s when I said “buy” time. If you look carefully you can see a rally since then.
This was because they were entering the end of the first quarter. You have a large tax bill due on April 15. People finally started to give up. They were buying every day and eventually gave up. But that capitulation was the moment you bought it…”
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