Mr Fraser, Boris Johnson has announced his resignation. What’s happening now?
The Conservatives will begin electing a new party leader next week. First, the parliamentary group selects two candidates from the field of applicants, who then face the party members in a runoff. The process is expected to last until September. That’s why the Tories must also decide whether they want to tolerate Johnson as prime minister until the autumn or whether they prefer someone else as interim leader.
Is it really conceivable that after this huge revolt he will rule until September?
My guess is that the Tories will keep him in office for the time being, but they will put tight limits on his power. He will no longer be allowed to announce major initiatives, just keep the business running. That could create tensions between his ambitions as head of government and the aspirations of his ministers. Of course, the government would have to react to unexpected events, such as the Ukraine war, but Johnson can no longer push controversial policies such as the Northern Ireland Protocol Act.
The law, which the EU regards as a breach of international law, is on hold for the time being?
It is very likely to be parked because it is controversial and would tie up the freedom of action of Johnson’s successor. Johnson will not be able to simply announce large tax cuts either.
The Labor opposition want to prevent him from remaining in power until September and are threatening a vote of no confidence in Parliament. So could it be over as early as next week?
I don’t know how such a vote would turn out. If the Tories decided to let Johnson remain in office for a transitional period, they would probably not help Labor overthrow the government. Because then there would be new elections, and I don’t think anyone thinks that’s the right answer at the moment. I’m not sure Labor leader Keir Starmer has thought through the implications of his announcement.
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Who has the best chance of succeeding Johnson?
There will be a large field of applicants. The candidates most likely to make it to the finals if they run are ex-Treasury Secretary Rishi Sunak, Secretary of State Liz Truss and ex-Secretary of State Jeremy Hunt. Sunak and Truss have both been very quiet this week, apart from Sunak’s resignation. This suggests that they are both exploring the situation. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace and Secretary of Commerce Penny Mordaunt are also popular at grassroots level, but they may have a harder time garnering enough votes in the faction to make it to the finals.
The prime minister announced his resignation on Thursday.
(Photo: IMAGO/ZUMA Wire)
What would be the best outcome for the EU?
First of all, it should be noted that Brexit happened. That won’t change. Any Conservative government will have to respect the pro-Brexit instincts of the vast majority in the party. So it would be a mistake to expect a fundamental change in policy towards the EU. No one will call for a return to the single market. What could change is the tone and attitude. Jeremy Hunt, for example, would take the Northern Ireland issue a little less sharply, but the problems exist and need to be resolved.
>>Read here: Wallace, Truss, Sunak – The battle for Johnson’s successor is on
So the Northern Ireland Act is being pushed further by the new government?
Not necessarily in its current form. But the pressure from Unionists not to accept de facto separation from Northern Ireland is there. Each new party leader will therefore have limited room for manoeuvre. Because everything he or she does will be closely watched by the Brexit wing. A moderate politician like Hunt will come under particular scrutiny. Every applicant must prove their allegiance to Brexit.
The leader changes, otherwise nothing changes?
The objective circumstances do not change. But hopefully we will have a government that pays more attention to good governance and the details than to using threats and big rhetoric.
What about Johnson’s policy of promoting structurally weak regions with higher government spending?
Rhetorically at least, there is likely to be a return to traditional conservative positions on taxes and government spending. But the new government will also have to fight against the economic crisis. She will not be able to ignore voters’ calls for more help.
More: Low taxes are not enough: Johnson’s successor must reinvent Great Britain