Brussels The EU is preparing for a further deterioration in bilateral relations following the election of Liz Truss as British Prime Minister. Commission officials and MEPs warn of a trade war if the new head of government sticks to the controversial Northern Ireland law as announced. The law would empower the government to override parts of the Brexit deal.
As Foreign Secretary, Truss actively promoted the uncompromising Brexit course of her predecessor Boris Johnson. At the beginning of the year, she broke off negotiations with the EU on easing border controls in Northern Ireland’s ports and fundamentally questioned the Northern Ireland Protocol in the Brexit Treaty.
The protocol stipulates that there will be no border controls at the EU’s external border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. This is to keep the peace on the island.
Instead, the customs border now runs through British territory between Great Britain and Northern Ireland – much to the displeasure of some Conservatives. The EU Commission has already reduced controls, but that’s not enough for London.
In Brussels, a further escalation of the dispute surrounding the Tories party conference in October is feared. There is speculation that Truss could use the dispute with the EU to distract attention from the economic crisis in the kingdom. “No one is optimistic,” says an EU official. “We expect very bumpy months.”
David McAllister (CDU), chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the European Parliament, also sees no new beginning in relations with Great Britain. “Liz Truss has been responsible for British policy towards the EU in recent months,” he says. “In this respect, I do not expect that she will pursue a different course as Prime Minister.”
The new British Prime Minister questions the Northern Ireland protocol.
(Photo: AP)
The Vice President of the European Parliament, Katarina Barley (SPD), is concerned about the experiences with Truss. However, she hopes that the prime minister will change course in her new post because she is now responsible for the country. “In any case, it has the ability to turn its flag to the wind,” says Barley. After all, Truss first voted against Brexit and later changed his mind. “We’ll have to wait and see whether she’s willing to risk a trade war with the EU. I hope she doesn’t let it get that far.”
EU Commission sees “clear breach of international law”
The EU Commission has signaled several times that it will not tolerate British violations of the Brexit Treaty and the free trade agreement in the long term. In total, she has initiated eleven infringement procedures against Great Britain – the first step towards possible sanctions. In the end, the free trade agreement could be suspended. Commission Vice-President Maros Sefcovic calls the British unilateral approach to the Northern Ireland Protocol a “clear breach of international law”.
Last week, the Commission received backing in a vote in the European Parliament. “There is a broad consensus in the European Parliament that we should take countermeasures if the treaties are not respected,” says French MEP Nathalie Loiseau from the liberal Renew group.
Nobody wants a trade war, says Loiseau. Europe already has enough crises to contend with. But she emphasizes: “The decision is entirely in the hands of the British Prime Minister. If she decides wrong, it would be very unfortunate because we will defend the interests of our citizens.”
We will defend the interests of our citizens. MEP Nathalie Loiseau
The British House of Commons had already passed the Northern Ireland Act before the summer break. Next, the House of Lords is debating the draft and could make significant changes. Traditionally, however, the unelected Lords do not completely stand in the way of MPs. McAllister anticipates a lengthy ping-pong between the House of Commons and the House of Lords that could stretch into the end of the year.
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The CDU politician has no understanding that the British government has withdrawn from talks with the EU. “Given the dramatic economic challenges facing the UK, I fail to understand why the UK Government does not take up our offer and look for pragmatic solutions within the existing framework,” he says.
The MEPs cannot imagine any further concessions by the EU towards London. “What the Commission has proposed is the most far-reaching thing that can be proposed,” says McAllister. “There must be a minimum of controls.”
No alternative to the Northern Ireland Protocol
Barley also emphasized: “I don’t see any leeway there.” The protocol had been negotiated for years. “If you want to avoid a fixed border on the island of Ireland, there is no fundamentally different construction than this.”
Loiseau reminds that the British themselves chose the new trade barriers. “We cannot undo Brexit,” she says. Leaving the EU means that trade will become more difficult.
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