His goal: to govern for another five years – and then resign.
(Photo: imago/Depo Photos)
Istanbul Apparently Recep Tayyip Erdogan has had enough of governing. The 68-year-old announced that he would ask for the “support of the nation” one last time in 2023. After that, he will be handed over to younger politicians.
Erdogan’s future withdrawal is good news for Turkish democracy – and for Europe. The country and its people have to recover from a state restructuring that the country has not experienced since the founding of the republic. However, this does not make things any easier in the relationship with Turkey – regardless of who follows Erdogan.
In two decades under Erdogan, Turkey has transformed itself from an EU accession candidate with a promise to open up to a state that is becoming increasingly autocratic and in which tens of thousands are accused of insulting the president. At the same time, the seemingly insignificant emerging country became a center for migration, arms exports and geopolitical negotiations.
Erdogan performed and is performing a geopolitical balancing act between the West and the autocratic emerging powers. Anyone who thinks that relations with Turkey will become easier once Erdogan’s career ends is probably wrong.
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Although most opposition parties are much more liberal in domestic politics, they are often even stricter than the government when it comes to foreign policy. If the main opposition party CHP has its way, Turkey would negotiate with Syrian President Assad about the return of Syrian refugees, take the dispute with Greece to the next level and demand further accession negotiations from the EU.
What are Erdogan’s motives for his announcement? He probably expects better chances in the upcoming presidential elections in June next year. Reign for another five years – and then resign.
The big question is whether the calculation will work out. One thing is certain, Erdogan is increasingly controversial – sometimes even within his own party. The best thing for Turkey and its European partners would be a fresh start now – and that means the incumbent president being voted out of office.
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