Istanbul A new conflict is looming between Turkey and other NATO member states. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has now received massive criticism from Germany with his statement that he wants to join the Asian NATO competitor SCO. The SPD foreign policy expert Michael Roth warned the NATO country Turkey against joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The organization is “diametrically opposed to NATO in its values and goals,” Roth told the editorial network Germany (RND). “Turkish membership would therefore be a clear departure from the NATO security alliance.”
The Greens are also pointing to confrontation. “NATO and the European Union must ask themselves how long they will let Erdogan dance around on their noses,” said foreign policy spokesman for the Greens parliamentary group, Jürgen Trittin, to the newspaper “Welt”. It was time for a “more robust Turkey policy”. Since no one can be expelled from NATO, coercive economic measures against Turkey must be considered.
Nils Schmid, foreign policy spokesman for the SPD parliamentary group, sees Erdogan’s plan as a serious mistake and as a renewed attempt to distract from domestic political difficulties. “In terms of foreign policy, this would be another symbolic step away from the West and its values,” said Schmid.
SCO presents 40 percent of the world’s population
Erdogan declared on Saturday that he wanted to join the SCO. Established in 2001 to fight terrorism, the group includes China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. None of the states can be called the leading democracy.
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However, the group represents 40 percent of the world’s population and around a third of global economic power. For comparison: the EU represents around six percent of the world’s population and almost 15 percent of global economic power.
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The Turkish President countered the criticism in a television interview with the American broadcaster PBS. He will attend the UN General Assembly in New York on Tuesday. “I have to say this very clearly, we are part of the world; neither East nor West,” Erdogan explained. The European Union has not admitted Turkey for 52 years, and even NATO members within the EU are causing difficulties, Erdogan said. “It is undoubtedly very significant for us that Turkey, which has such a strong position, is being sidelined with such diversionary tactics.”
The EU cannot stall Turkey and then criticize him for meeting with other heads of state, Erdogan said. “In conducting these negotiations we are not accountable to the European Union. We meet with all countries in the world.”
Shanghai group already holding joint military exercises
Turkey is currently listed as a dialogue partner by the Shanghai organization. In the event of accession, Turkey would be the first member of the group to also belong to the western defense alliance NATO.
German politicians also see Erdogan’s move as an election campaign maneuver. SPD politician Roth believes that his re-election in the coming year is in jeopardy, among other things, because of mistakes in economic policy. “He’s now trying to make up for that by trying to make a name for himself in foreign policy: he’s rattling on NATO partner Greece, undermining the sanctions against Russia, threatening to block Sweden and Finland from joining NATO, and now openly flirting with a SCO membership,” Roth said.
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Indeed, membership of the Shanghai Group would be Turkey’s geopolitical affront to the West. The group has long been more than just a loose security and economic alliance led by Russia and China. Between 2005 and 2009, SCO members held three major military maneuvers.
Observers attest the alliance an anti-American attitude, if not necessarily a fundamentally anti-Western attitude. Ukraine under former President Viktor Yanukovych also expressed interest in the group in 2012.
Turkey has also played a larger role in the organization for longer than its status as a dialogue partner would suggest. Erdogan has been represented at the regular meetings at the level of heads of state since 2012. What’s more, in autumn 2016 the then Turkish energy minister and Erdogan’s son-in-law Berat Albayrak proposed taking over the chair of the energy club within the SCO. In 2017, Turkey actually held the presidency for one year.
This idea was preceded by Erdogan’s allusion that his country could consider joining the non-Western organization if the European Union “does not reach a decision on the accession process soon,” as the Turkish head of state put it at the time. Even then, Erdogan had told journalists that he could imagine becoming a full member of the largest non-Western organization in Eurasia. “The Shanghai Pact would allow Turkey to trade much more easily.”
Other emerging countries welcome Erdogan’s plan
What doesn’t go down well in the West is well liked in other countries. China, as the group’s lead nation, is open to SCO expansion in the spirit of its geo-economic “Belt and Road” initiative. Turkey is an important country on the trade route from China to Europe. In addition, Ankara has not only gained geopolitical weight since the Ukraine war. Ankara’s membership could correspondingly enhance the club’s geopolitical status – and encourage other states in the region to join as well.
As early as 2017, China had expressed an interest in campaigning for SCO membership in the Middle East. Iran is now on the verge of membership. Mutual arch-enemies Azerbaijan and Armenia, who are themselves dialogue partners with the Shanghai Group, are also positive about Turkey’s possible accession.
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Members Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are not standing in the way either, on the contrary: both countries have already held summits with Turkey to expand their trade with the country under the Shanghai Group organization.
One reason for Erdoğan’s deepening ties with Russian-led organizations is to force more concessions from Western countries. Due to Turkey’s geostrategic importance for the political containment of Russia – the most recent example being the war in Ukraine – Erdoğan considers that Western countries cannot afford to lose Turkey’s support.
The Turkish President is thus running a lucrative but also risky game. By flirting with the East, he risks sanctions from the West. However, such punitive measures have always closed the ranks behind Erdogan, most recently in the presidential election campaign in early 2018. At the same time, he is signaling to Asian countries that he is open to them, and could thus attract new investments.
A narrow political path, which the alliance member Russia, however, narrows. A Foreign Ministry official in Moscow said: “If Turkey wants to join the Shanghai group, it cannot be a NATO member at the same time.”
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