The election is over, the new one has arrived. If you don’t look at life from a very romantic point of view, it seems like Erdogan will win mathematically…
The current result shows that the current model will be persisted. In terms of economy, this means that capital controls will be tightened in the upcoming period, interest rates will not increase, and there will be no fight against inflation. Turkish lira The depreciation cannot be stopped.
The plan is old, the program is old, the policy is old… If it worked, we would see the effect anyway… No trust, no expectation, no hope! Old stone old bath… There wasn’t even enough water left in the bath to fill the bowl. All was spent holding the dollar in the name of the election.
Not budget freak!
Let me explain, let’s calculate together… In 2022 budget in the middle of the year additional budget had continued with.
Let’s act broadly for 2023 again in the middle of the year a new budget with the thought of not preparing budget deficit 659.4 billion lira envisioned as…
32.2 billion in January, 170, in February and 47.2 billion in March. lira giving open budget balance, 132.4 billion in April lira gave open. Thus, in the January-April period budget deficit 382.4 billion to lira reached. According to the first four months budget deficit It reached 2.75 times that of 2022.
There are items and expenses that are not yet accounted for. They’re going to collect them one after the other. If the deficit comes over 1 trillion, they will kiss and put it on their heads.
What are these? The unbearable weight of the Currency Protected Deposits… The tremendous increase of public workers… Recruitment of contracted employees… Salary payments of those who are old enough to retire… Each and every one of them is entered into the system gradually…
Officer eat stone? The promise that the lowest salary will be 22 thousand for him… Raise and holiday bonuses for pensioners… Earthquake expenses… In an item called natural gas good news. to the budget 40 billion lira adding a burden… Unimaginable election promises…
Budget patch Central printing money
beauty of work budget deficits do not affect the market and prices instantly, like a foreign exchange deficit. delayed effects. Budget turn on when finished additional budget enters. If it ends, they will be indebted to their heart’s content… Who will you tell what in this management system?
These all mean resources… Where will it come from? It is not closed by collecting taxes. If you borrow money, companies, firms, people cannot access credit. From where? The credit to be given to these segments goes to the state. The money pool is clear, the pool draws the water.
So what to do? The Central Bank will go for monetary expansion. How will money expand? In rough terms, money will be printed… Actually, the subject is a bit technical, but it’s meaningless. Turkish lira it will be abundant. What happens if there is no demand for an abundant product? It loses value… It will be…
Noone Turkish Lira Since he does not want to keep it, the demand for dollars, gold, cars, eggplants, in short, everything will increase. And then?
If there is no miracle, the economy is in a tumble!
It’s interest, it’s gold, it’s the stock market, it’s the exchange rate, it’s crypto. From another point of view, the number of people who have problems will decrease!
What about the current account deficit? We were running from record to record in exports every month. Turkish lira Our goods became more expensive when they were valued because of their value… Orders began to be cut like knives.
When the alarm signals of exports, which had slowed down and then paused for 6 months due to cost increases and currency pressure, were ignored by the economy administration, a sharp decline began in April. The decline in exports by 17 percent did not come as a surprise…
How much is the export, trade deficit in the first four months? Fully 43.5 billion dollars… If tourism goes bad, they will throw dirt on the Turkish economy… It is not possible to get out without damage in this process…
As long as this is the system, don’t expect miracles… Poverty and misery are waiting for you, let me tell you, don’t delay!
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