Drought: Europe’s electricity supply at risk

The situation is particularly tense in France, where two-thirds of the power supply is normally provided by nuclear power plants. But around half is currently being maintained and is not connected to the network. The remaining nuclear power plants would actually have to be run at full capacity, but then their cooling water would heat up the rivers to such an extent that animals and plants would be harmed. Some reactors have therefore already been reduced to minimum power, and many are only making half their normal contribution to the electricity supply.

So far, there has only been an exception to the environmental regulations for a single power plant in 2018. Now five power plants are allowed to pump hotter water than usual into the rivers at the same time. The special permit is initially set to last five weeks.

France in a state of emergency

France has lost its role as an electricity exporter and security anchor in the European power grid. Instead of selling electricity, the country must, among other things, be supplied with electricity from German power plants.

“In France, the wholesale electricity price is more than 1,000 euros per megawatt hour,” says Fabian Huneke, a consultant at Energy Brainpool. “This no longer has anything to do with the production costs, but shows that the traders expect a shortage in winter.”

Other electricity partners are also having problems. In Switzerland, one of the three nuclear power plants is only running at half power so as not to overheat the Aare River. But the fact that the reservoirs and pump storage basins are not as full as usual has an even greater impact. Normally, Switzerland produces 60 percent of its electricity with hydropower and exports a lot of it in summer. Now the government has ordered that the reserves must be conserved.

In Italy, more than 4000 small hydroelectric power plants along the rivers contribute a significant part to the electricity production. But the pools are emptier than they have been in 50 years. The Po River, which runs through northern Italy, has dried up in places. 90 percent of the mini hydroelectric power plants along the irrigation canals there have been shut down. Some thermoelectric power plants in the Po basin, which are operated with gas or diesel, also had to be shut down because they need the water for cooling.

Glaciers release less and less water

The current heat and drought is compounded by the fact that too little snow has already fallen in winter. In addition, the glaciers in the Alps are getting smaller and release less water from year to year.

The reservoirs in Norway are regarded as security for the European power supply. But even they are only 68 percent full. That’s almost 10 percentage points below normal levels at this time of year, the Department of Energy said. In southern Norway, where the power plants are connected to Germany via the Nordlink submarine cable, the situation is even more critical. According to the ministry, the probability of a power shortage is still low. However, one wants to prepare for unexpected events in the weather or on the European electricity market.

Norway could be one of the first countries to draw long-term effective consequences from the current tense situation. The government is working on a mechanism by which exports can be limited in the future if the level of the reservoirs drops to a very low level. Buying countries like Germany would then have a problem.

The head of the International Association for Hydropower, Eddie Rich, warns against investments: “Most of the European hydropower parks are over 30 years old, so the modernization of existing plants would be an easy first success,” Rich told the Handelsblatt. They could become more efficient and resilient without impacting the environment.

In addition, further transmission lines should be built. In northern parts of Scandinavia, electricity prices remain very low because hydroelectric power stations there are poorly connected to the European grid.

The shortages mean that more electricity is being produced from gas, although the federal government actually wants to save as much of it as possible. According to Huneke, German gas-fired power plants generated 13 percent more electricity in July than in July of the previous year, despite significantly higher gas prices. For August it is 24 percent more so far.

Germany faces a coal problem

Another risk is the difficult transport conditions on the waterways. Some of the coal burned in German power plants comes across the Rhine by ship.

The situation is still relaxed thanks to full warehouses. However, if the water levels continue to fall, “this could also lead to certain performance restrictions in our systems,” said a spokesman for the hard coal group Steag. In the coming weeks in particular, not less, but more coal than usual will have to be transported. According to experts, around twice as much as in the previous year.

>> Read here: The low water in the Rhine is also a political failure – a comment

Companies cannot simply switch to other transport routes because the level of the Rhine is not the only obstacle. “It starts with the crane operator in Rotterdam and extends to upgrading railway wagons for transporting coal – there is a shortage everywhere,” says an industry manager. Coal transports by rail should now have priority.

McKinsey energy expert Weiss reminds that the low water level caused problems in 2018. “Since then, however, around 16 gigawatts of secured power plant capacity have been shut down and only around four gigawatts have been newly built. The system is therefore less resilient,” he says. “We are facing challenges on a scale and complexity I have not seen before.”

Load shedding is not improbable, says Weiss. What is meant is a situation in which, for example, larger industrial pantographs have to be disconnected from the grid in order to prevent power failures. “In the worst case, a cold winter and a dry year will follow,” says consultant Huneke. “Then we will remember the current electricity prices as cheap.”

Drought could worsen

So far, at least, there is no relaxation in sight. Rain is expected in many regions of Europe in the next ten days, says Andrea Toreti from the European Drought Observatory of the EU Commission. “However, the long-term forecast for the next three months still points to drier conditions than usual.” Hydrologist Fred Hattermann from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) points out that the driest time of the year usually begins in September .

Compared to past weather, the current situation is extreme: “This drought appears to be worse than the 2018 drought, which up until then was the worst since 1500 BC,” says Toreti. The water levels are so low that at some estuaries the seawater spills into the river bed.

The causes of this dramatic situation are likely to become even more acute: “The ice at the poles is melting and therefore reflects less solar radiation than before,” explains PIK researcher Hattermann. “Terrain and water surfaces lying under the ice appear, which with their darker color absorb a large part of the solar energy and become significantly warmer.

As a result, the temperature difference between the equator and the poles will decrease, and with it the drive for the westerly winds that prevail in Europe. “As a result, weather conditions last longer instead of alternating like they used to,” says Hattermann. “This is one of the reasons why both floods and droughts are becoming more frequent.”

That can no longer be changed. “Climate change is continuing,” says Hattermann. “A very ambitious climate policy could only slowly stop it in the middle of the century.”

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