After the CBRT interest rate decision, based on TL 26 dollar exchange rateThe second week of July started calmly. Although the policy rate increased for the first time in a long time on June 22, the Dollar/TRY parity appreciated by nearly 10% within a week. While foreign exchange and gold seem stable in the second half of the year, the discussions around the new economy management continue.
Up 0.17% since the beginning of the day USD/TL parity started the new week at 26.10 level.
Gram Gold Awaits US Data
A similar outlook prevails in gram gold, which is frequently preferred by individuals in Turkey to protect their savings. Fluctuating at the level of 1587-1617 TL for more than 2 weeks, gold is testing the horizontal resistance level with 1615 TL.
grams of gold Although the price is indirectly affected by the Dollar/TL parity, data from the USA may change the course of the precious metal.
Employment numbers that remain strong across the ocean have led to expectations that the Fed has more room for rate hikes. The precious metal, which rose to the level of $ 2060 at the beginning of May, has lost 7% to date. An ounce of gold is currently available at $1924.
Gold investors’ eyes are on the US inflation forecasts coming tonight. If a sharper-than-expected decline in inflation occurs, gold may gain value.
Liraization Strategy Continues!
Although the new economy management claims that it will follow policies closer to the mainstream, we continue to witness practices similar to the decisions taken by the old administration around the “liraization strategy”. In its statement this morning, the Central Bank announced new incentives for investors to keep long-term TL deposits.
Can the Economy Management Take the Decisions It Wants?
Following the end of the elections, the new economic administration appointed by President Erdogan remains at the center of the discussions. The markets could not reach a consensus on the compatibility of the statements of CBRT Chairman Hafize Gaye Erkan and Treasury Minister Mehmet Şimşek with the decisions.
“Back to rational ground” Despite the message, the interest rate decision of the Central Bank, which fell short of expectations in the first meeting, caused the discussions to flare up. Experts expected the new administration to move the policy rate to at least 25% as a result of the first MPC. However, the 15% decision of the new management did not meet the expectations.
Discussions about the CBRT are not limited to interest rate decisions. The fact that most of the managers next to Erkan continue to work after he took over the seat from Kavcıoğlu leads to comments that the hands of the new management are tied.
Another discussion around the Central Bank is about foreign exchange intervention. Although Erkan gave the message that they would not intervene in the foreign exchange market at the beginning of last week, the news that public banks made sales during the week had echoes. After the allegations, the sale from the government wing “KKM returns” Although it is interpreted that it is for FX deposits, there is no decrease in the amount of currency protected deposits.
While the discussions on monetary policy revolve around the CBRT, the pressure on Mehmet Şimşek comes from the budget. Although the statements of the new minister to the press were positive, the decisions taken pointed to the opposite. Şimşek emphasized the Maastricht Criteria for budget management last week. The public policy implemented by EU members envisages some ethical limits in the areas of public deficit and borrowing.
Despite Şimşek’s frugal attitude in the public budget, the opposite statements are in question in the bag bill that came to the parliament. According to the draft, the 661 billion TL debt ceiling of the treasury will be updated as 2.1 trillion TL.
According to most experts, Erdogan and his advisers continue to interfere in economic decisions. Şimşek and Erkan, who give Orthodox messages, have difficulties in making the moves they want.
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