Wolfgang Ischinger is a former ambassador to Washington and was head of the Munich Security Conference.
(Photo: Klawe Rzezcy)
According to media reports, Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko has announced that his army’s SU-24 fighter jets have been converted for the use of nuclear weapons. Earlier, Russia had already promised to deliver nuclear-capable Iskander-M missiles to its neighbor.
Should Putin now decide to station nuclear weapons in Belarus, this would be a further escalation, which is also linked to the war against Ukraine. Because both the SU-24 and the Iskander-M are suitable for the use of those tactical nuclear warheads that Russia could use as a means of deterrence in Ukraine. For NATO it is now a matter of keeping a cool head and not escalating this nuclear threat from the Kremlin.
Just a few days after the Russian attack on all of Ukraine in February 2022, Lukashenko forced a constitutional referendum that would allow nuclear weapons to be stationed in Belarus. Such a step would be uncharted territory for modern Russia.
However, the predecessor state, the Soviet Union, stationed nuclear weapons in a total of six countries, for example in Poland and also in the former GDR. In addition, the nuclear warheads and delivery systems were distributed throughout the Soviet Union, including on today’s Belarusian territory.
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If Russia were to decide to station nuclear weapons in Belarus, this would have consequences for the European security order that should not be neglected. On the one hand, the stationing would have to be understood as an escalation in Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine. Since the beginning of the attack, Russian officials and media have threatened to use nuclear weapons. Most recently, the Russian President announced that he would defend his country’s territorial integrity with nuclear weapons if necessary.
Possible deployments in the neighboring country would be another signal in this direction. Russia’s army uses Belarus as a base for attacks on Ukraine. There are also allegations that Belarusian soldiers are deployed in Ukraine, although Lukashenko denies this. In fact, Belarus is deeply involved in the war. The message would be clear: Russia is including the use of nuclear weapons from Belarus in future war planning.
Lukashenko is one of Putin’s few allies in his war against Ukraine.
(Photo: IMAGO/SNA)
On the other hand, NATO would face new geomilitary challenges. Belarus borders on Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. All three are members of the military alliance and would be directly affected by the deployments. Finally, the global nuclear order would also be in danger. The transfer of nuclear weapons to allied states in the course of a war of aggression would further weaken the already ailing Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
>>Read also: What is the risk of a nuclear attack by Russia?
Despite these possible threat scenarios, NATO should not play the Kremlin’s game. While Russia, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, nolens volens transferred all nuclear weapons that it had stationed abroad (now no longer allied) to its own territory, NATO stuck to so-called nuclear sharing. During the Cold War, US nuclear weapons were located in a total of 14 countries. Today these are only Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey.
A reaction to the developments in Belarus by preparing additional deployments, for example in Eastern European alliance countries, would be the wrong approach. It is disadvantageous for NATO if the conflict increasingly shifts to the field of nuclear saber-rattling.
The threat of a nuclear escalation worries people in Europe and can make aid to Ukraine more difficult. In addition, NATO is currently modernizing the delivery systems that are intended for the use of nuclear weapons in Europe. With the future F-35 fighter jets, the alliance has the most modern military technology, which would also counteract a possible threat from Belarus.
Should the plans to station nuclear weapons in Belarus progress, the heads of government of the NATO countries must remain calm. The best Western response to ongoing attempts to push the conflict into the realm of nuclear threats is continued unwavering support for Ukraine.
And once the ongoing Russian war of aggression has hopefully ended successfully for Ukraine, at some point there will also be an opportunity to enter into arms control negotiations with Russia again – also on the weapon categories in question.
More: Why the US would benefit from a prolonged war in Ukraine.