Dusseldorf Military expert Florence Gaub believes the West misinterpreted Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threatening gestures about the possible use of nuclear weapons. In the new episode of “Handelsblatt Today” she says that Putin did not raise the alert of the nuclear forces to level 2.
“The status he announced does not exist in Russian military doctrine. We know from satellite imagery and intelligence information that the Russians actually didn’t go on alert at all,” says Gaub.
Nevertheless, it is important to respect that, even if it is “just a threatening gesture”. Gaub believes NATO’s decision not to actively intervene in the Ukraine war to be the right one – and warns of “strategic impatience” in the West: “The fact is: what we are doing is working. We have to let it work – like an antibiotic.” As deputy director of the European Union Institute for Security Studies in Paris, Gaub has been studying the military strategies of different countries for many years.
Don’t reduce the problem to Putin himself
Gaub does not believe that the problem with Russia would be solved with a regime change or a quick end to the war: “Russia has a fundamental problem with how the world is set up and how nations like the USA intervene in other countries’ affairs.” Russia wants to change that as a last resort , now with violence. And this view of the world is not only deeply rooted in Putin, but also in the Russian elite.
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In any case, the military expert does not believe that a quick end to the Ukraine war is in sight: “Statistically speaking, wars between states last an average of 15 months. War is not something that ends quickly, even if that is of course what one would like very much in the 21st century.”
Gaub describes the massive shelling of civilian facilities and residential buildings in Ukraine by Russia as a “punishment strategy”. At the same time, this is an “emergency strategy” that you use when you really can’t do anything else. And it probably won’t lead to a Ukrainian surrender.
Focus shifts to eastern Ukraine
In the meantime, however, Russia seems to be changing its strategy in Ukraine: the Russian leadership has offered a ceasefire to allow civilians to escape from the badly damaged port city of Mariupol. At the same time, there seems to be a partial withdrawal of Russian troops near the capital, Kyiv. Gaub points out: “This could be a rhetorical distraction. In Syria, Putin announced the withdrawal three times, which has not happened to this day.”
In addition, Gaub believes it is very likely that troops will now be massed to launch an offensive in eastern Ukraine and eliminate Ukrainian forces there. “Once that is achieved, there is absolutely no reason for Russia not to try to advance to Kyiv after all.”
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