Berlin In the first electronics stores, the salesperson no longer accompanies the customer through the shelves. Instead, a robot points the way to TV sets and cameras. Instead of going to the bank’s financial advisor, more and more people just click on the Internet to look for a suitable investment. An algorithm that classifies conspicuous areas on the body as dangerous or irrelevant recognizes when you go to the dermatologist.
Automation and digitization are not just emptying workbenches and factory halls. Desk and service provider jobs could also increasingly be replaced by machines. But according to experts, there is no threat of mass unemployment. At the same time, new jobs are being created, whether for the development and maintenance of new technologies or in the social sector.
The big challenge: How do you manage to get mechanics, salespeople and the like into these new jobs for which they are not trained at all? Germany is not prepared for this crucial task. This is the result of the scientific advisory board of the Federal Ministry of Economics in a new report that is available to the Handelsblatt.
The 38 top scientists from economics and law fear “a coexistence of a shortage of skilled workers and unemployment”. In addition, there could be an “intensification of inequality”.
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They therefore propose a radical reorganization of the German further education system. The idea: As with dual training, a structure should be created that is supported by the state, companies and employees as well as their representative organizations.
Employees whose job is digitized away should be able to attend one-year training courses. They would be theoretically qualified in schools and practically qualified for new jobs in companies. The professional chambers would be responsible for the final examinations. The content would be recorded in further training regulations that would be drawn up by associations, trade unions, the Federal Institute for Vocational Training and politics.
Millions of jobs are at risk of being lost
The major restructuring of the labor market is only just getting off the ground. In 2019, around 11.3 million or a good third of all employees subject to social security contributions in Germany were in a profession that, according to the Institute for Labor Market and Occupational Research (IAB), can be easily automated. “The number of jobs lost [wird] at least compensated by newly created jobs, but with completely different characteristics,” is explained in the Advisory Board report.
In Germany, the further training rates are significantly lower than in many other countries. Experts have been criticizing the lack of efforts in this area for years.
Denmark, for example, has a country-wide modular further training system. In Germany, the state-funded “educational platform” that has been planned for years and is intended to bundle further training offers and also evaluate them qualitatively is still not in sight. Former Federal Education Minister Anja Karliczek (CDU) had promised to start in 2023.
The coalition agreement only mentions a “further development of the national further training strategy” and that Germany needs a “new boost for vocational training, further education and further training” – “especially if technological change requires it”. The further training strategy “remains vague,” writes the advisory board of Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens). But the companies are now taking action themselves.
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“We are facing a significant change that needs to be organised, which has not yet taken place. Nobody feels responsible at the moment,” says Lars Schatilow. The IBM manager is the founder of the “Human Friendly Automation” initiative, an association of business and science.
Large German corporations have also joined forces to form an “Alliance of Opportunities”. The now 39 members include automotive suppliers such as Continental and Bosch, as well as the chemical group BASF, as well as Siemens and Deutsche Bahn AG.
The Advisory Board of the Federal Ministry of Economics is now also making more concrete proposals for politicians. Depending on the situation, the scientists suggest that the state could take over part of the financial burden on employees and companies through a “financial bridge” during the transition.
The coalition agreement contains an idea from the government on the question of financing. “With a ‘free space account’, tax and duty-free savings for further training courses should be made possible,” says Carl-Julius Cronenberg, spokesman for the FDP for medium-sized companies. People with lower incomes are subsidized monthly.
Companies are also given the opportunity to keep employees in the company during the structural change through qualification and to train the required specialists with a qualification allowance, which is to be structured similarly to the short-time work allowance. “These measures will not fail to have an effect,” says Cronenberg.
However, the Advisory Board’s proposal goes beyond the financing. At the end of the training, workers would receive an official certificate. This could solve the current problem that certificates from a computer course or other further training courses “only have a low signal value for potential employers in the widely fragmented further training market, since the content and examinations are not clear”.
The Advisory Board proposes that a “round table” made up of social partners, politics, further training providers and science should shape the new further training system as quickly as possible. So that the system can also be used, the experts recommend a legal right to further training.
More: “Need a flexible education time” – Bertelsmann Foundation calls for reform of further education.