India tries diplomatic dance on Ukraine, but Russia is an awkward partner

The leader of the world’s largest democracy is having a hard time uttering the word that has dominated headlines and diplomatic discourse for nearly a month. “Ukraine” has topped multilateral and bilateral agendas since Russia launched its invasion last month, but Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi appears determined to avoid the subject at all costs.  

At a virtual summit between the leaders of Australia and India on Monday, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison opened the meeting with a reference to “the very distressing backdrop of the war in Europe” and “Russia’s unlawful invasion of Ukraine”.

Modi’s remarks, in sharp contrast, skipped the elephant in the room, meandering through trade, technology, stolen artefacts and cricket. But India’s allies are noting Modi’s studied Ukraine-war omission along with New Delhi’s persistent failure to criticise Russian aggression – and have concluded that it’s just not cricket. 

Over the past few weeks, India has abstained five times from condemning the invasion at the UN, including a UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) resolution demanding an independent inquiry on Russian violations in Ukraine.  

India has not only stuck to the diplomatic sidelines as the international community slaps sanctions against the Putin regime, it is even considering buying Russian oil in Moscow’s time of economic need. Indian officials have confirmed that the country’s central bank is in initial consultations with Moscow on a bilateral rupee-rouble exchange to maintain trade relations despite the West’s sanctions, according to media reports.

As President Vladimir Putin reapplies his Chechnya and Syria war strategies on Ukraine, there have been howls of condemnations over Russian attacks on civilians, including strikes on hospitals and bomb shelters in the besieged city of Mariupol. India though has issued statements calling for the “respect of sovereignty and territorial integrity” while refusing to call out Russia for its brutal disrespect for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. 

The war in Ukraine has been a moment of reckoning for the international community, sparking a reset in some countries, such as Germany, that have dramatically changed their defence and energy policies to respond to the latest aggression and try to forestall future Russian expansionist bids.  

But India – a mighty democracy that sees itself as a leader of the developing world – has been frozen on the fence, attempting an old balancing act between Moscow and Washington DC while the tectonic plates of global power shift beneath its feet.   

New Delhi has been careful to explain its delicate situation, including historic links backed by Moscow’s economic and diplomatic support through thick and thin. But as the war in Ukraine enters a more vicious phase, with India’s allies coping with the effects of sanctions on global prices and supplies, New Delhi’s diplomatic tightrope act could get hard to sustain.      

‘Interests, not morality’ drive policy  

During the height of the Cold War, India was one of the founding members of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) of primarily postcolonial nations that refused to be officially aligned with either the US or the USSR. 

Since the end of the Cold War, NAM has struggled for relevance, keeping up criticisms of US foreign policy while Russia was granted observer status last year. Of the 35 countries that abstained in a March 3 UN General Assembly vote calling for an immediate end to the Ukraine invasion, all the countries – except China – are NAM members. 

“We’re looking at one of the most serious cases of aggression committed by any country since the end of World War II,” noted Michael Kugelman from the Washington DC-based Wilson Center in an interview with FRANCE 24. “Why did 30-odd countries refuse to condemn the aggression? The answer is simple: because it was not in their interest to vote in favour of the resolution. At the end of the day, it’s interests, not morality, that drive foreign policy decisions.” 

Oil and arms for sale at cheap rates 

Earlier this month, as international sanctions started to bite and with Western Europe moving to reduce Russian oil imports, Moscow offered to sell India 3 million barrels of Russian oil at a heavy discount, according to media reports.

India is not as energy dependent on Russia as Germany, but the discounted price saw Indian officials revisiting a Cold War-era arrangement called the rupee-rouble trade to bypass financial sanctions.  

New Delhi’s interests in Russia are primarily in the defence sector. On the international stage, New Delhi may be a vocal proponent of a non-aligned, multipolar world order, but its dependence on Russian arms belies its standing as an independent Global South leader.  

“India’s armed forces are predominantly equipped with Russian weaponry. Moscow has been India’s historic arms supplier and is open to technology transfers,” explained Avinash Paliwal of London University’s School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) in an interview with FRANCE 24. 

Both India and Russia feature prominently in global arms import and export charts, with billion-dollar bilateral stakes.    

Russia is the world’s second-largest arms exporter after the US, accounting for nearly 20 percent of global exports between 2017-2021, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

Among importers, India tops the arms buyer charts, accounting for 11 percent of global arms imports in 2017-2021, according to SIPRI figures. 

While India has attempted to diversify its arms procurement – primarily from France and Israel, in recent years – it has not managed to wean itself from Russian military hardware.  

Around 85 percent of India’s existing arsenal – including MiG-29 and Sukhoi SU-30 fighter jets – came from the Soviet Union or Russia, according to the Washington DC-based Stimson Center. New Delhi is Moscow’s top weapons buyer, with India accounting for a whopping 28 percent of Russia’s global arms sales, according to SIPRI figures.  

“Russia provides arms at special prices. Take for instance, the S-400 missile defence system that Delhi views as critical to its national security. No other country is willing to offer a better deal,” said Kugelman. “India currently faces a two-front threat from China and Pakistan.

There’s a high demand for military equipment from Moscow to help India deter the Chinese threat, and India doesn’t have the luxury of just deciding to wind down Russian imports.” 

Pakistani PM’s ‘exciting time’ to visit Moscow 

India is adept at explaining what it calls its “pincer” security situation between rivals China to the east and Pakistan to its west. But New Delhi has been less adroit at adjusting to a changing security scenario in its backyard and beyond.  

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan not only scrambled India’s geostrategic gains in the region, it also clouded New Delhi’s reading of Putin’s hegemonic plans in Europe and its global impact.  

Last month, when Russia launched its invasion on Ukraine, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan was in Moscow, echoing Putin’s anti-West screed. On February 24, as the world recoiled in horror over Russia’s aggression, the Pakistani cricketer-turned-prime minister declared it was an “exciting time” to be in the Russian capital. “It was terrible decision-making. Imran Khan’s stock didn’t rise by visiting Moscow,” noted Paliwal. 

Khan is facing a no-confidence vote in parliament later this week, driven primarily over domestic governance and economic mismanagement issues. But on the foreign policy front, Khan’s anti-West alignment with Putin has been steadily tightening into an embrace. 

“The Russia-Pakistan relationship tectonic plate has been shifting for a while. This includes Russia’s tactical support of the Taliban [Pakistan’s allies in Afghanistan]. The differences between Russia and India in the subcontinent is also quite visible with Moscow’s lethal arming of Myanmar’s military junta,” explained Paliwal.

Sino-Russian ‘authoritarian alliance’ 

More alarming for India has been China’s ties with Russia, which are getting stronger as Moscow faces isolation on the world stage.  

Just days before the Ukraine invasion, Putin and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping cemented a significant partnership on the sidelines of the Beijing Winter Olympics. While the West has been monitoring a Sino-Russian “authoritarian alliance”, for India, it’s a nightmare scenario.

“While India wants different power centres, a new entente between Russia and China undermines this multipolarity,” explained Kugelman. 

As a new Iron Curtain falls over Russia, analysts warn that Putin’s growing dependence on Xi would make it difficult for India to navigate its critical interests. “Seeing an important ally being completely economically and diplomatically dependent on a key strategic adversary – China – is not to Delhi’s advantage. Sino-Russia ties have taken a whole different logic and it’s much more in favour of China,” said Paliwal. 

Beijing’s regional power games, including the 2020 deadly Sino-India border skirmishes, has drawn India closer to the US in recent years. India is now part of the Quad grouping – which includes Australia, Japan and the US – that is focused on the Indo-Pacific region and functions as a counterweight to China.

But the Ukraine war is not only throwing Putin into Xi’s brotherly embrace, it also risks distracting the US from the Indo-Pacific theatre, according to Kugelman. “It could prompt Washington to downgrade the threat of China and to focus on Europe. India doesn’t want that,” he explained. 

The Quad is not a formal alliance, but a loose grouping of four nations bound by a joint opposition to Chinese muscle flexing in the region. Each country though projects its own values on the grouping. Japan, for instance, emphasizes the democratic credibility of the four Quad nations while India is more focused on maritime cooperation.  

The Ukraine war however is starting to expose New Delhi’s compromised moral and military power in the club.

India is the only Quad member that has not condemned Russia’s invasion, sparking thinly veiled exasperation in diplomatic circles. Following the latest Morrison-Modi virtual summit, for instance, India’s foreign secretary on Monday told reporters that Australia “understands” New Delhi’s position on Ukraine.  

“‘Understands’ in diplomatic parlance is not necessarily agreeing with the policy but grudgingly accepting India’s position,” explained Kugelman.  “Fellow Quad members have strongly different views on the Russian issue and it’s one of the rare policy disagreements in the group.” 

While the US so far has stopped short of criticising India’s position on Ukraine, there are signs that Washington’s patience is starting to wear thin. Addressing US business leaders on Monday, President Joe Biden noted that that India was an exception among Washington’s allies with its “shaky” response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. “The Quad is, with the possible exception of India being somewhat shaky on some of this, but Japan has been extremely strong – so has Australia – in terms of dealing with Putin’s aggression,” said Biden. 

A mediation opportunity – if Putin agrees 

Some analysts believe the Russian invasion could provide a diplomatic opportunity for India. “I think India is well positioned to play the role of third-party negotiator. None of the other countries that have offered to mediate – Israel, France or Turkey – have the kind of deep relations that New Delhi has with Moscow,” said Kugelman. “India is sensitive to criticisms that it punches below its weight on the world stage. If India agrees to mediate, and could help end the war, it would showcase its ability to do big and meaningful things in the world.” 

But the success of an Indian mediation would hinge on Putin’s willingness to yield. It would require New Delhi to ditch a longstanding resistance to third-party negotiations since India has historically opposed any outside involvement in its disputes, particularly with Pakistan over the Kashmir crisis.  

The Russian invasion has caught India balancing on the wrong diplomatic foot. If it lacks the nimbleness to shift course, New Delhi could be stuck in a rut as the Ukraine war drags on while India needs military spare parts to service its primarily Russian arsenal against rivals drawing closer to Moscow.