Athens, Paris, Madrid, Rome After two years of heavy losses, it looked until recently as if the European tourism industry could finally check off the pandemic. According to data from the tourism consultancy Mabrian, flight capacities to the destinations Greece, Portugal, Italy and Spain are back to pre-crisis levels this year. France alone is 19 percent below that.
However, the war in Ukraine is likely to reduce many people’s desire to travel again. Carlos Cendra, Mabrian’s Marketing Director, says: “The new instability is jeopardizing the recovery of European tourism,” he says.
Crude oil prices are rising as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine – which will probably also affect airline ticket prices. In response to Russia’s war of aggression, an import ban on Russian oil is now being discussed. That pushed oil prices to their highest levels since 2008 at the start of the week. If you haven’t booked yet, you probably won’t.
The risk is particularly high for countries that have a high proportion of Russian guests, such as Turkey. An overview of what the most important European destinations can expect for this summer.
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Turkey: Popular with travelers from Russia
Last year, 4.5 million holidaymakers from Russia came to Turkey, and this year it should be even more. However, the war in Ukraine and Ankara’s demonstrative support for Kyiv are likely to deter Russians from traveling to Turkey.
In addition to the Russian guests, Turkey will mainly miss vacationers from the Ukraine. In 2021, around two million Ukrainians spent their holidays in Turkey, and an increase is expected this year.
The crisis is likely to thwart the very optimistic plans that Turkey’s Tourism Minister Mehmet Ersoy had for this year: he wanted to break the pre-pandemic record and targeted $35 billion in industry sales by 2022. “Bookings, especially from the United Kingdom and Balkan countries, are already very high,” Ersoy was quoted as saying by the Turkish media before the Ukraine war.
The weak lira could help. The national currency has lost around half of its value since October. This makes holidays on the Turkish Riviera significantly cheaper than, for example, in Spain or on a Greek island.
On the other hand, inflation is rampant in the country and has reached a 20-year high of almost 49 percent. Everything is getting more expensive, including wages for employees. Hoteliers may have to react to this at short notice, for example with wage increases or layoffs. The next few months will show how this affects the price-performance ratio.
Cyprus: sanctions as a setback
The western sanctions against Russia are a serious setback for the tourism industry on the Mediterranean island of Cyprus. In 2021, Russian tourists were the second largest holidaymaker nation after the British with a share of almost 20 percent. It was therefore not easy for the Cypriot government to implement the EU’s decision to block airspace for Russian aircraft.
Foreign Minister Ioannis Kasoulides reported reservations to the EU Council and is keeping a back door open: If Turkey does not also close its airspace to Russian aircraft, Cyprus also wants to reopen its airports.
This case could happen soon, because the NATO country Turkey has so far rejected sanctions against Russia in principle. The Russian ambassador in Nicosia has already taunted the Cypriots: “Do you want Russian tourists to fly to Turkey and spend their money there? Summer is coming and you are closing your airspace. You’re shooting yourself in the foot!” said the diplomat.
>> Read about this: EU country Cyprus is itself in trouble as a result of the European sanctions
Greece: Strong season expected
Greece wanted to officially start the travel season this year on March 1st, earlier than ever before. The omens were good: in January, the number of passengers arriving from abroad at Greek airports more than tripled year-on-year.
According to Tourism Minister Vasilis Kikilias, bookings are currently 30 percent higher than last year. The islands of Crete, Rhodes, Mykonos and Santorini as well as Kos and Corfu are particularly in demand.
Last year already exceeded all expectations. The number of visitors doubled compared to 2020. The Germans made up the majority of travelers, followed by the British and French. Tourism revenue increased by 147 percent.
This shows a trend: holidaymakers are taking longer trips and treating themselves to more. The trips booked for the summer at Tui, Europe’s largest tour operator, are on average 23 percent more expensive than a year ago.
According to its CEO Fritz Joussen, Tui wants to bring three million holidaymakers to Greece this year. That would be twice as many as last year and more than in the previous record year 2019.
Port on the Greek island of Thassos: The country starts the holiday season in March this year.
(Photo: Caro / Oberhaeuser)
The Greek economic research institute IOBE expects tourism in the country to reach 90 percent of the pre-crisis level of 2019 this year. Not only the early start at the beginning of March should help. Tour operators and airlines want to extend the season into December, says tourism minister Kikilias.
Italy: Prices for the summer have risen by nine percent
Italy’s tourism, which accounts for a good 13 percent of economic output, has suffered greatly in the past two years. In 2021, sales were about 30 percent below pre-pandemic levels.
The tourism associations hope to get back to about the pre-corona level this year. The trend reversal should bring abroad: 26 million foreign tourists came last year, in 2022 there should be around 37 million.
Russia does not play a major role in this. Travelers from the country make up only about 2.5 percent of all tourists. However, they are among the most generous: in 2019, the 185,000 Russians who visited the shopping stronghold of Milan spent an average of 2,000 euros.
The end of the Corona emergency at the end of March could give the tourism industry a boost. This could also eliminate the obligation to provide proof of vaccination or recovery for hotel stays.
The government has not yet made a final decision. However, the tourism associations vehemently insist on the end of the 2G rule in order to save business during the Easter holidays. Your fear: Many travelers could switch to other holiday countries where similar regulations have long since been overturned.
Despite everything, the hotel operators are optimistic. The prices for the summer season have already risen by an average of nine percent.
Spain: Full recovery not until 2023
The Spanish tourism industry is expecting a significant relaxation this year. The Spanish tourism association Exceltur expects the industry to achieve around 88 percent of its 2019 sales.
Tourism will thus account for 10.5 percent of Spanish economic output this year. Last year it was 7.4 percent, before the crisis it was 11.7 percent.
Companies do not expect full recovery until next year and blame the violent omicron wave in Spain for this. In addition, the high energy prices would have slowed down travel activities even without the Ukraine war, according to the tourism association.
For destinations in the countryside, on the coasts and on islands, the industry expects income of around 90 percent of the pre-crisis level, in the cities the expected value is slightly lower at 76 to 89 percent.
The hope lies primarily in the demand from domestic tourists, while foreign visitors are estimated to be almost a fifth below the pre-crisis level.
Portugal: British and Irish bookings up sharply
The Portuguese government expects tourism industry sales this year to reach 85 percent of 2019 levels. Optimism is even greater in the tourist stronghold of the Algarve in the south of the country.
There, the industry is hoping to match pre-pandemic revenues in 2019 — the region’s best year to date. Algarve Tourism Association chairman João Fernandes said bookings from British and Irish tourists for late February and Easter had increased significantly since travel restrictions were eased.
There is also optimism in the Azores. Mário Mota Borges, Regional Secretary for Transport, Tourism and Energy, assumes that the archipelago will be able to use its capacities to a similar extent this year as in 2019, “if nothing unforeseen happens”. However, he said this before the outbreak of the Ukraine war.
France: Many book earlier and spend more money
In France, experts expect an increase of 21.8 percent in tourism revenue. Many vacationers saved money during the pandemic and are now ready to treat themselves, according to the forecast.
What is new is that many people reserve earlier. According to Didier Arino, head of the Protourisme consultancy, people often make last-minute reservations during the pandemic.
Now, given the easing, holidaymakers seem to want to make sure that not all attractive offers are already fully booked. Brittany, southern France, the Atlantic coast and the Mediterranean coast are particularly popular.
The holiday home rental company Gîtes de France has already received many reservations for July and August. Boss Solange Escure reports 30 to 40 percent more reservations than 2021 and 15 to 20 percent more reservations than 2019, depending on the region.
The figures also show that holidaymakers are investing more money in their trip: At Gîtes de France, travelers spend ten to 15 percent more than usual. Even for Paris, where there are still no Asian tourists, the tourist office expects figures like 2019.
More: Tui boss looks at the summer business with optimism.