Dusseldorf On the German stock market, the 13,000-point mark was the focus of Thursday trading for a long time. Only in the course of a weak stock market opening in the USA did the Dax slip somewhat and is currently 0.7 percent down at 12,935 points.
Trading on Wednesday already showed the short-term importance of this mark. The leading index slipped below it twice, but the subsequent purchases quickly lifted the stock market barometer back above the round level. At the close of trading there were 13,028 points on the display board.
This 13,000-point mark should also remain in the focus of investors until Friday afternoon. Because around 1 p.m. the futures contracts on the leading German index expire because Friday is the big expiry day, also called the witches’ sabbath. And many professional investors have an interest in seeing their derivatives settle near 13,000 points. It usually gets exciting an hour before the billing, also known as the witching hour in technical jargon.
According to the latest data from the provider Stockstreet, most of the calls that professionals use to bet on rising prices and most of the puts that buyers use to protect themselves against price losses are exactly at the settlement level of 13,000 points.
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Of course, the buyers of the calls want the Dax to continue to rise. Just no settlement price on Friday afternoon below this mark, is their motto. At the latest below 13,000 points their positions would slip into the red.
But not only the buyers of the largest call options, but also the sellers of the largest put positions have a great interest in a settlement price at this level on Friday afternoon.
Because in this case, the sellers of this put option, known in technical jargon as writers, can collect their premium for the sale without losses. These sellers are usually banks or institutional investors who hold the underlying asset of the option in their own portfolio.
It’s quite possible that new impetus will come back to retail from Friday noon or at the latest on the Monday after. There should be a clear direction by Thursday next week at the latest, when the Dax starts trading again after the US interest rate decision.
The following applies: The potential for surprises with clearer price movements is on the upside. Behavioral economist Joachim Goldberg agrees based on the analysis of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange survey of institutional and private investors and other indicators.
However, the reason for this is not the behavior of domestic investors. Because they are apparently immune to bad news. Only a few of them realized profits when the Dax climbed above the 13,500 point mark on Tuesday.
Financial expert Brunner: “The Dax is in a downward spiral”
In Goldberg’s opinion, the Dax could get support from international fund managers. The Bank of America has certified great pessimism and a high cash ratio. So there is enough money to invest.
Forty-two percent of respondents said they were underweight euro zone stocks, a negative record in the survey. “Should a surge occur, the distress faced by many bears, including international ones, could add to the buoyancy,” Goldberg said.
Gas price climbs again
The EU’s discussions and proposals for an excess profit levy on energy companies have already resulted in a clear reaction. The gas price is climbing again.
>> Read also: EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: “Our proposal will generate more than 140 billion euros”
The futures contract TTF on the energy exchange in Amsterdam for the month of October, which is trend-setting for European gas trading, rose again on Thursday to EUR 234 per megawatt hour – an increase of 7.4 percent despite refilled gas storage facilities. Just a few days ago, the price was 184 euros. The record high was reached on August 26 with 346 euros. In the past few decades, the price for one MWh of natural gas has generally fluctuated between 10 and 20 euros.
Strong dollar weighs on gold prices
A stronger US dollar and the prospect of more aggressive rate hikes by the Fed push gold prices to their lowest levels in almost two months. A troy ounce of the precious metal fell 0.6 percent to $1,685. The dollar index is up 0.2 percent, nearing recent highs.
The Chicago futures exchange has a 30 percent chance that the Federal Reserve will hike rates by 100 basis points at next week’s meeting. That would cause gold to fall below $1,680 an ounce, said financial expert Michael Langford of consultancy Airguide.
Look at the individual values
Commerzbank: The biggest winners in Thursday’s trading are the bank stocks, which are benefiting from the further rise in interest rates. The European sector index rose by 2.4 percent. One of the biggest winners is the Commerzbank paper, which climbs 2.3 percent. Deutsche Bank titles are up 1.2 percent.
Delivery Hero: The papers are down 3.3 percent. A dealer referred to a company announcement that CEO Niklas Östberg and COO Pieter-Jan Vandepitte sold their own shares. Östberg alone realized almost ten million euros with the sale. “This is a negative signal,” said the broker.
Vantage Towers: A media report about the interest of financial investors in Vantage Towers gives the mobile phone tower operator the biggest price jump since the IPO a year and a half ago. The shares rose by a good 14 percent to EUR 29.10. In London, the titles of the parent company Vodafone gain a good five percent. According to Bloomberg news agency, KKR and Global Infrastructure Partners are among other financial investors looking to acquire Vantage Towers.
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