Dusseldorf The German stock market is out of breath for the time being, the hunt for new highs as part of the 2500-point rally since the end of September has ended for the time being. Now it is important to find out how far the Dax will fall in the coming days or even weeks. Many professional investors are currently wondering when it is worth liquidating short positions and getting back in.
On Thursday, the German leading index made its profits almost completely after a successful trade start and closed with an increase of 0.2 percent at 14,266 points. With today’s daily low of 14,149 points, the stock market barometer has expanded its consolidation.
The consolidation that started on Wednesday is normal after a price increase of more than 20 percent and from a technical point of view it is also healthy for further development. It would end at prices above 14,440 points. As long as the Dax does not slip below the 200-day line, which is at 13,580 points, the medium-term upward movement will remain intact.
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The current investor survey conducted by the Frankfurt Stock Exchange among medium-term private and institutional investors offers good news. Because since the survey a week ago, the Dax has climbed more than 800 points. And what did the many pessimistic professionals who bet on falling prices a week ago do? They kept their positions.
For the capital market expert Joachim Goldberg, after evaluating the survey, there is even some evidence that these short sellers “on balance often did not close their positions, but even increased them in some places”. Perhaps the bears are just hesitant to take their accumulated losses. The reasons may be varied, but the result is clear: These professionals are under considerable pressure if prices do not fall again.
>> Read also: The Dax rally is taking a break – four scenarios for the coming days
Behavioral economist Goldberg suspects that domestic institutional investors will reappear as buyers from 13,750/13,800 points by also liquidating their short positions.
This is because short sellers borrow shares and sell them immediately in the hope of being able to buy them back at a lower price before the return date. The difference between the sale and buyback price is the profit that these professionals can only dream of at the moment. In the worst case, they have to chase a rising stock market.
The Dax is currently benefiting to a considerable extent from long-term capital inflows from abroad. That’s according to Bank of America’s Fund Manager Survey. Because according to the survey from the beginning of November, the professionals fear above all significantly higher inflation rates. However, this fear was not confirmed after the end of the survey because US inflation was lower than expected last Thursday.
expiry day on Friday
Tomorrow Friday is a small expiry day at the appointment market. On such days, futures contracts on the leading German index and on individual shares expire. There is much to suggest that new impetus will come into trading after the settlement at the latest – no matter in which direction.
On the day itself, the focus is on the 14,100 point mark. The Dax is likely to be trading close to this mark on Friday afternoon when the index options expire. Because with a base price of 14,100 points, the largest of all outstanding Dax options is due on Friday.
According to Thomas Altmann from the investment house QC Partners, more than 40,000 contracts are due for this option on Friday. For comparison, the largest position on the December expiry date, which is usually more significant, is only 28,000 contracts.
>> Read also: “The long-term prospects for investors are the best they have been in over a decade”
However, the following trading week is likely to be more decisive. Because in the three months before, the leading German index rose or fell by around 1000 points. The last two expiration days in September and August of this year were a disaster for price development. In October, on the other hand, an increase of almost 1000 points began with the expiry date by the end of the month.
More downside risks in crypto market
The uncertainties in the crypto industry continue. The recent bankruptcy of the FTX crypto exchange has also made life difficult for the cryptocurrency company Genesis. In order to ensure liquidity, no further loans should be granted and repayments should be temporarily suspended, it said.
The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that BlockFi was preparing to file for bankruptcy. For the analyst Timo Emden it seems “as if a domino effect had already been triggered”. Investors should brace themselves for further downside risks, he believes. Bitcoin is trading slightly in the red at $16.576, according to website Coinmarketcap.
Look at the individual values
Thyssen Krupp: After growth in the past financial year, the industrial group wants to pay out a dividend for the first time in years. Investors are to receive 15 cents per share. The stock closed after a friendly start of trade with a minus of 2.1 percent.
Siemens: Despite the global upheaval, Siemens achieved a record operating profit of more than ten billion euros for the first time in the past fiscal year. The dividend is expected to increase from 4.00 to 4.25 euros, the share climbed by almost seven percent.
MTU: The shares attracted 4.3 percent, the engine manufacturer has operated a billion gain for 2025. The company is planning record sales for this year and intends to go even higher in the years to come.
Team viewer: The shares were able to expand their price gains and closed almost 2.4 percent in the plus. The activist investor Petrus Adivsers has called on the specialist for remote maintenance software to end the sponsorship contracts with the Manchester United football club and the Mercedes Formula 1 team.
ProSiebenSat1: The shares climbed 5.1 percent to 8.56 euros. Credit Suisse’s analysts raised the price target for the papers to 6.20 euros from 5.91 euros.
Here you can go to the page with the Dax course, here you can find the current tops & flops in the Dax.