Dax gives back part of its profits after a high inflation rate – professionals ignore many risks

There were clearer reactions to the high inflation on the bond market. The yield on a ten-year federal bond was 0.81 percent at midday and 0.89 percent after the publication. The reaction was even clearer for Bunds with a two-year term. Their return climbed from 0.12 to 0.19 percent. For Thomas Altmann from the investment house QC Partners, there was good and bad news when it came to inflation data. “The bad news is that inflation continues to rise. The good thing is that inflation is rising more slowly.” He considers the reaction on the bond market to be “extremely violent”.

At first glance, courses above 14,000 points on Thursday came as a surprise. Konstantin Oldenburger from the broker CMC Markets explained that, against the background of mounting risks, bullish investors are finding it increasingly difficult to “resist the almost tsunami-like selling waves”.

Especially since the Frankfurt Stock Exchange survey of medium-term institutional and private investors gives no signal that prices will rise again. Because since the survey of the previous week, the leading German index has fallen by seven percent at its peak. But the mood of the pros has not changed at all on balance – a rather unusual occurrence.

In view of the many risks, such as the new recession forecasts, the stoppage of Russian gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, the possible order for further corona lockdowns in China and the warning of the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov about the danger of a nuclear war, the professionals should actually become pessimistic, i.e. falling expect courses.

According to the sentiment analysis, that would have been a counter-indicator that would have increased the chances of rising prices. In this scenario, new capital could have flowed back into the market. However, there is no skepticism – and that is a burden for the Dax, according to behavioral economist Joachim Goldberg, who evaluates the survey. “We cannot give the all-clear,” he explains.

Foreign investors in particular are likely to have caused the price slide on the German stock market in the past few trading days. One indication of this is the falling euro exchange rate, which has fallen by around 2.7 percent against the dollar since last Wednesday. Clearly a lot of capital has flowed out of Europe.

More Handelsblatt articles on the stock market

The mood in the USA is different. According to the current sentiment survey by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), the proportion of bulls among US private investors remains at a historically low level of 16.4 percent. At the same time, the percentage of pessimists rose to 59.4 percent – the highest level since March 2009.

The bad mood is a supporting factor for the US stock exchanges. The same applies here: the negative mood is a counter-indicator because many investors are not invested and are waiting for an entry.

Look at the individual values

Delivery Hero: The food delivery service significantly increased sales in the first quarter. Customers placed goods with a total value of 10.1 billion euros in the digital shopping cart at group level, almost 31 percent more than in the same period of the previous year. Nevertheless, the share leads the Dax list of losers by a wide margin with a minus of 8.8 percent. In the meantime, the paper slipped more than twelve percent.

The company went public in July 2017 with an issue price of EUR 25.50 and hit its previous record low of EUR 25.26 on the first day of trading. Today’s daily low of 26.18 euros was not far away from that.

In November of last year, the paper was traded at EUR 128.50 and has since slipped by around 80 percent.

Asset manager Markus Schön sees his opinion confirmed. At the beginning of February of this year, he had already forecast a price target of EUR 15 to EUR 20 after the historical price drop to almost EUR 45 and is sticking to his assessment. “Then the only asset of the company – the technological infrastructure – is properly valued,” he says.

hellofresh: The cooking box supplier recorded more customer and order numbers at the beginning of the year. In the first three months of the year, the company, which is listed on the Dax, had around 8.5 million active customers (previous year: 7.3 million) and almost 34.6 million orders (29.3 million).

The company had already announced the first figures the evening before and confirmed its forecast for the year. After an increase of almost twelve percent on Wednesday, the paper rose by a further two percent on Thursday. However, Hellofresh stock has lost over 80 percent of its value since the end of November.

Fielman: Despite the pandemic and the consequences of the Russian attack on Ukraine, the optician chain is growing and increasing profits sharply. Nevertheless, the share fell 1.6 percent.

For the current year, the listed family company has announced an increase in sales of up to ten percent and a noticeable improvement in margins. However, the forecast is subject to the proviso that neither restrictions in the fight against corona nor protracted consequences of the war have a significant impact on business.

LPKF: The laser specialist is struggling with delivery problems. According to the company, there are challenges in shipping the products, especially in the solar segment. The company figures and the forecast are well received on the stock exchange, the share rises by more than ten percent.

Here you can go to the page with the Dax course, here you can find the current tops & flops in the Dax.