Above all, travel values were in demand. Fraport and Lufthansa were among the favorites in the MDax with increases of up to three percent. Shares from the airline industry were in demand across Europe after competitor United Airlines surprised the evening before the US market closed by saying that it plans to return to profitability.
On the other hand, the shares of the online companies Delivery Hero, Hellofresh and Zalando listed in the Dax, which had been trading much more firmly the day before, now fell again by up to 2.2 percent.
The players on the financial markets have now had enough time to get used to the threat scenarios for the markets, such as the effects of the war in Ukraine and the probably significant interest rate hikes in the USA.
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This can be deduced from the two sentiment surveys such as the Handelsblatt Dax-Sentiment from the weekend and the survey by the Frankfurt Stock Exchange on Wednesday evening yesterday. In the stock exchange survey, institutional investment professionals are increasingly being interviewed.
For the behavioral economist Joachim Goldberg, who evaluates the Frankfurt survey, this means a slightly better starting point for further price increases in the coming trading days. “However, the trees should not grow into the sky,” says Germany’s leading sentiment expert. He expects professionals to sell again in the range between 14,500 and 14,550 points, which “may at least temporarily represent a certain obstacle”. So far, however, little has been seen of this obstacle.
Anyone who is familiar with the imponderables of the markets knows, of course, that extremely negative news can lead to another sell-off at any time. But that is the second piece of good news from the portfolio adjustments that have been made. In the opinion of the sentiment expert Stephan Heibel, who evaluates the Handelsblatt survey, such a sell-off should “only be of short duration”.
Pros expect quiet trading days
The fact that investors have ticked off the economic consequences of the Ukraine war can also be seen from the VDax volatility index, the stock exchange’s so-called fear barometer. The lower this value, the less price fluctuations the professionals on the futures market expect in the next 30 days.
The VDax is now trading at around 23 percent, well below the pre-war level. On the day of the Russian invasion at the end of February, the value rose to 36 percent and even reached 44 percent a few days later. The VDax was last at a similar level to the current level at the beginning of February this year.
For classification: Values below 20 percent signal quiet stock market phases. The VDax reached its record value of 99 percent in the middle of the Corona crash in March 2020.
Support also comes from the USA: There is an extremely bad mood among private investors there. The proportion of bulls who expect rising prices has increased slightly compared to the previous week, but is still at a historic level at 18.9 percent. Such bad sentiment is seen as a contraindication and thus a support for the stock market because investors have already sold their shares.
The technical Dax analysis
In the medium term: The downward trend in the Dax since the beginning of the year is intact. Only sustainable listings above 15,000 points should change something in this starting position. The leading index only just failed at this mark on March 29 with its daily high of 14,952 points. So far, the price gains are just a so-called bear market rally.
In the short term: From the beginning to the end of March, the Dax had a 2500-point rally. And the leading index is currently processing these gains. The lowest point of this short-term downward movement since the end of March is 13,887 points. Technical analysts call this a minimal correction, which is common after such a dynamic rally.
However, the Dax should not fall below this mark of 13,887 points if possible. Otherwise, the bottom attempt would have failed and the downtrend is likely to last longer than some investors would like. On the other hand, if this mark holds, there should be another attempt towards 15,000 points in the coming trading days.
Oil prices are rising again
Fears of supply bottlenecks are driving the oil price up on Thursday. North Sea oil Brent and US oil WTI are up 1.3 percent to $108.17 and $103.46 per barrel respectively. Discussions about a European oil embargo against Russia have receded into the background, but not yet off the table, says Vandana Hari of analysis house Vanda Insights.
Disruptions in Libyan oil production due to political unrest are also causing investors concern. Libya produces about 1.2 million barrels of crude oil per day.
Euro benefits from possible rate hikes
Speculations about an impending interest rate hike in the euro area give momentum to the common currency. The euro is up as much as 0.6 percent to a one-week high of $1.0915. The dollar index loses up to 0.4 percent to 99.99 digits. Bundesbank boss Joachim Nagel recently called for an initial interest rate hike in the summer due to high inflation in Germany.
According to insiders, the European Central Bank (ECB) did not rule out a rate hike in July with its latest monetary policy decisions. However, faster action by the ECB against inflation presupposes that the economic prospects do not deteriorate significantly, says Commerzbank analyst Antje Praefcke. “If Europe is spared an energy crisis, it is likely that the ECB will raise interest rates in the fall, as our experts expect.”
Look at the individual values
Sartorious: The Goettingen-based laboratory outfitter is benefiting from the persistently strong demand for its products and is sticking to the outlook for the year so far. The company, which provides technology for the manufacture of biopharmaceuticals and vaccines, reiterated its earlier guidance for the full year and continues to expect sales growth of 15 to 19 percent and an operating margin (Ebitda) of , despite rising logistics and material costs and negative currency effects around 34 percent.
Sartorius is one of the market leaders in laboratory balances, pipettes and other laboratory consumables. The share, which rose to the leading index Dax, which was expanded in September 2021, climbed 4.7 percent today, Thursday, leading the Dax list of winners.
Continental: The auto parts maker is lowering its profit forecast as costs have risen as a result of the war in Ukraine. The costs for important supplies, especially for oil-based raw materials as well as in the energy sector and logistics would rise significantly. Since the correction was less than feared, investors grabbed it. The Conti share listed in the Dax increased by more than four percent at times.
Siemens: The price gains at the Swiss electrical engineering group ABB are also helping the shares of the German rival Siemens on the jumps. With an increase of 2.6 percent, the titles are among the biggest Dax winners. ABB add 5.5 percent at the top. Despite strained supply chains and rising inflation, the group got off to a good start in the current year.
Tesla: After the US stock market closed, the electric car pioneer presented record figures, increased sales by 81 percent and defied the chip crisis and supply chain problems. For the first time, Elon Musk admits problems with the autopilot. The share is in demand on the German stock market and has risen by around five percent on the Xetra trading platform.
Hornbach Holding: In the SDax, equities were one of the bigger winners. After the private bank Berenberg included them in its rating with a buy recommendation, they rose by 1.5 percent. Analyst Benjamin Thielmann praised the positioning of the hardware store chain compared to its competitors.
Klöckner&Co: The shares of the steel trader, which traded 3.7 percent higher, led the SDax. An optimistic comment from the investment house Jefferies with a price target increased to 16 euros was used as support here. Just above the EUR 13 mark, the price approached the area around EUR 13.50 again, at the threshold of which it had recently turned downwards.
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