Dusseldorf At the start of trading, the relief rally of the past two days appeared to be over. Off the floor, the situation even looked dramatic: around 7.45 a.m. there were 15,044 points.
But after a weak opening with a daily low of 15,197 points, buyers heaved the Dax significantly higher again. The Dax finally ended the trading day up 0.4 percent at 15,524 points.
With this increase of 385 points from the daily low to the daily high of 15,582 points, the chances for a continuation of the relief rally are good. Because after the 600-point slide on Monday this week, the mood on the markets was friendly for the third day in a row.
US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell provided the reason for the price slide at the start of trading on Thursday. Because the new consensus for this year, according to the “FedWatch Tool” of the Chicago futures exchange, is five interest rate steps. It was four before yesterday’s rate meeting. 60 percent of futures market professionals already expect three increases by June of this year. For Thomas Altmann from the investment house QC Partners Powell has become a “stock market scare”..
>> Read here: “Plenty of room for rate hikes” – Fed chair braces markets for significant turnaround
A first point of contact for further price gains would be the 200-day line, which is currently at 15,609 points. A re-evaluation would only be possible for courses with more than 16,000 positions. With listings above 15,692 points, at least the downward trend since the beginning of the year would have ended. However, this does not necessarily mean that a new upward trend will follow immediately.
On the underside, the 15,000-point mark remains in focus for the Dax – combined with the anxious question: will the support, which is groundbreaking for the medium-term trend, hold? The round mark of 15,000 jobs has served as support since April last year. In those ten months, there were only a few listings below this range, but they were quickly closed.
Specifically, investors should pay attention to two scores, which are probably the most important points of reference at the moment: On the one hand there is the with 14,492 digits low this week and with 14,818 points, the low of last October. This is also the starting point for the subsequent record high of 16,290 digits. If the October low is breached, a dynamic downward wave could follow. But as long as that doesn’t happen, investors can still hope for a continuation of the relief rally.
Investment professionals rely massively on rising prices
The current survey by the Frankfurt Stock Exchange among medium-term private investors and institutional investors gives little cause for hope. Because there has been a drastic change in mood among investment professionals.
The camp of the so-called “bears”, who bet on falling prices, has halved. And even worse: 90 percent of the former pessimists moved straight into the “bull” camp, so they are betting on rising prices.
Readers who follow such sentiment surveys closely will recognize the explosiveness of this result. Put simply, a large number of optimists signal falling prices because there is a lack of new buyers. Because if the prices rise, profit-taking should probably slow down a further rise in the Dax. And when prices fall, there is too little demand for support.
Accordingly, behavioral economist Joachim Goldberg says after evaluating the Frankfurt Stock Exchange survey: “The bullish positions of investors pose a considerable risk to the domestic stock market if they have to pull the emergency brake in the form of stop-loss sales on the way down. “
One reason for this dramatic change in mood is probably the sense of achievement in the previous week. According to the survey at the time, many professionals bet on falling prices on Wednesday a week ago and were more than rewarded with the 600-point slide on Monday. The drop to 15,500/15,450 jobs planned at the time was even significantly exceeded.
Now they hope for a similar sense of achievement in the opposite direction and rely on rising prices. But this time they could be wrong.
Look at the individual values
Infineon and STMicro: Supported by price gains from STMicro after their good outlook, Infineon shares also successfully braced themselves against the tech weakness. While the Stoxx Europe 600 Technology fell to its lowest level since May 2021, Infineon climbed by more than two percent at the top. STMicro even jumped by up to almost six percent.
Software Inc: After a decline in earnings last year, the Darmstadt-based software company wants to increase its operations again. The company’s papers gained 6.4 percent as the MDax leader.
SAP: The software giant has increased the pace of moving its core business to the cloud. SAP confirmed the quarterly figures published on January 13, as well as the outlook for the current financial year. That wasn’t enough for stockbrokers. The paper lost six percent and leads the Dax list of losers.
Deutsche Bank: Despite the pandemic and low interest rates, the bank has again earned very well. Germany’s largest money house can more than quadruple its net profit compared to 2020 – even if the fourth quarter was disappointing. Deutsche Bank shares rose by 3.9 percent in the weak market environment and led the Dax list of winners.
Sartorious: Business is booming at the laboratory supplier Sartorius. Nevertheless, the share slipped by more than four percent, but closed with a plus of 1.1 percent. The paper has already lost around 25 percent in value in the past four weeks.
The company exceeded its sales forecast, which it raised in the summer, which had anticipated growth of around 45 percent. In 2022, Sartorius also expects double-digit growth of 14 to 18 percent after the extraordinary growth of the past two years due to the pandemic.
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