Frankfurt At the beginning of the last trading week of the current year, investors are in good spirits. The Dax gained around 0.4 percent on Tuesday afternoon and closed at 13,995 points. In the meantime, the stock market barometer even surpassed the important mark of 14,000 points, but fell below it again in the afternoon. Most exchanges were closed on Monday for the Christmas holiday.
The main reason for the upward movement are the positive specifications from Asia, where the stock exchanges in China and Japan increased by half a percent or more. Behind this are the increasing signals for a reopening of the Chinese economy after a long lockdown to fight corona. The further easing of the corona restrictions gives investors hope for better prospects for German companies as well.
Trading will continue on three days until the end of the year. During this time, only a few economic data can influence the mood on the stock market. On Wednesday and Friday there will be new figures for the US economy, on Thursday data from the US labor market. However, experts no longer expect major activity from investors who are already dealing with the prospects for 2023 by the turn of the year.
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Most eyes are cautiously optimistic about the coming stock market year. The well-known fund manager Jens Ehrhardt is out of the ordinary. His prediction: “A significant bear market in the first half of the year in both the US and Europe.”
The founder of the asset management DJE Kapital insists on the behavior of the central banks. “Soon, from a monetary point of view, the toughest anti-inflation policy of the post-war era will probably lead to much lower prices.”
Ehrhardt is skeptical about the falling growth rate of the US money supply and assumes that corporate profits will fall significantly in the coming year, so that stock valuations would still be well above the lows seen at earlier stock market turning points. The strategist therefore interprets the price gains of the past few months as an interim recovery in a downward trend.
Sentix sees Dax at 10,000 points
The forecast of the asset manager Sentix, also known for its economic index and investor surveys, also does not belong to the rather positive consensus. The annual outlook is titled “Scarcity Economy”. There is a lack of energy, raw materials, labor and liquidity, among other things.
The result: “The storm on the US stock market is not yet over.” With a sustained economic downturn, falling corporate profits and significantly rising bond yields, prices would fall further. “A sell-off in October sets the stage for a recovery,” the expectation is. Then the S&P 500, which is currently close to 4000 points, could be below 3000 points.
Expectations for the German and European stock markets look a little better. “The energy supply problems are having a much more dramatic effect here and are also the reason why there are massive fears of a major gas shortage in the fall,” the Sentix experts estimate. Her conclusion: “Without gas from Russia, it will be damn tight for the Dax as well; a Dax low of 10,000 points is possible in this context.”
>> Read here: What strategists expect for the Dax in 2023
DZ Bank, on the other hand, gives a reassuring forecast. “The major negative factors for the capital markets in general and the stock markets in particular will remain with investors, but they need not despair,” judge the company’s analysts. More specifically, they estimate: “We expect single-digit price returns for shares in 2023, which corresponds to a normal average stock market year.”
The point forecast of the DZ Bank analysts for the end of the year is 15,000 Dax counters. The issue of inflation will continue to accompany investors. Accordingly, the estimate for the yield on the ten-year federal bond at the end of the year is three percent – and thus significantly above the current value of 2.45 percent.
Robert Halver is also looking positively to the future. For the new year, the head of capital market analysis at Baader Bank insists on the Ifo business expectations, which after a deep fall would indicate increasing confidence in companies from the industrial and export sectors. If the Chinese economy were to improve again, “especially export-sensitive and cyclical stocks from Germany would be delighted”.
Halver’s conclusion is based on the sober mood of investors: “Because expectations are low, more and more good price opportunities arise with more and more positive news.”
Look at the individual values:
In the Dax, Porsche AG, Siemens Energy and Covestro recorded the largest price gains at the close of trading, in some cases by more than two percent. Siemens Energy had announced a share buyback program.
Among the medium-sized MDax shares, Lanxess, Rheinmetall and Deutsche Lufthansa are ahead, also with price gains of up to two percent. Within the SDax for small companies, Ceconomy, Norma Group and Grenke close at the top with premiums of between three and nine percent.
Here you can go to the page with the Dax course, here you can find the current tops & flops in the Dax.