Attacks via the Internet will become even more common, experts predict.
(Photo: imago images/Panthermedia)
austin Russia is also waging war against Ukraine online, destroying thousands of computers and shutting down or defacing government websites. Malicious software such as HermeticWiper and WhisperGate has damaged important parts of Ukraine’s digital infrastructure. But experts fear that the next generation of cyber weapons could cause even more damage.
Future wars would not only be fought with bombs and forces on the ground. The digital systems that keep armies running are also being attacked, says Torsten George, vice president of the security firm Absolute Software: “Every war in the 21st century is fueled by cyber operations, attacks on weapons and support systems, the hijacking of drones and fighter jets in the air as well as the diversion of missile attacks.”
Professor Lucas Kello from Oxford University even considers cyber weapons to be as dangerous as atomic bombs in global politics. Because cyber weapons could change the global balance of power. Unlike atomic bombs, they are cheaper, can be used in a more targeted manner and the attacker is often not clearly identifiable. A mutual armament and deterrence as in the case of nuclear weapons is therefore obsolete. Rather, states today live in a constant state of “strife,” as Kello emphasizes.
US strategy is changing
But it is not only the use of an actor like Russia in a war of aggression that violates international law that is dangerous. The US could also use cyber weapons. US President Joe Biden had security experts present scenarios for a large-scale attack on Russia, reports the television channel NBC News.
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These include a disruption of the entire Russian Internet, a shutdown of the Russian power supply and the sabotage of the Russian train network. “Anything is possible: slowing down trains or letting them fall off the tracks,” NBC quoted an insider as saying. The White House in Washington denied this account.
So far, the US has almost always opted for diplomatic responses to cyber attacks, but that has changed, says Nicole Perlroth. She was a cybersecurity reporter for the New York Times for ten years and now advises the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA). “We will respond to cyber attacks to the same extent,” said Perlroth at a panel at the SXSW technology festival. “Russia has been trying out its cyber weapons in Ukraine for years.” It is quite possible that the USA will also come into focus.
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Security researcher Bar Kaduri fears that the attacks on the US have already begun. His company Orca Security Research Pod has registered a sharp increase in attacks on cloud customers in the USA. The HermeticWiper malware has spread beyond Ukraine and can also be used to remotely control infected computers in order to use them in future cyberattacks.
In addition to states, another actor has also got involved in the cyber war: Anonymous. The hacker collective claims to have hacked several state television stations in Russia and disrupted government websites. The Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov also called on Twitter for the establishment of a cyber volunteer squad that could act in a similar way.
A power shift occurs through such autonomous groups, observes SXSW founder Amy Webb: “They may step in to help, but this is a geopolitical conflict on a global scale, and that is delicate. You don’t have to do actual code-level damage to do significant damage in the world. That’s what worries me.”
Security companies benefit
The new threats mean strong demand for cybersecurity products. The most important companies are located in the USA, especially in Silicon Valley. According to analyzes by market researcher IDC, Palo Alto Networks from Santa Clara, California, was the market leader last year with a market share of around 19 percent.
This is followed by Cisco from San Jose, California with a market share of around 16 percent and Fortinet from Sunnyvale, California with a market share of 14 percent. The headquarters of all three companies are only a few kilometers apart.
The crisis in Ukraine is already having an impact on many companies, explains Paul Condra, tech analyst at Pitchbook. “Western companies make about one to two percent of their revenues in Russia. Those companies are now pulling out,” he explains. “But this war could act as a catalyst in cybersecurity with increased investment.”