A widely followed crypto analyst ahead of the expected April 2024 halving event Bitcoin It outlines what the “worst case scenario” for (BTC) could look like.
A crypto analyst with the pseudonym Rekt Capital told his 363,800 followers on social media platform X that BTC could repeat a price pattern similar to 2015, the year before the halving, and enter a months-long accumulation phase. says.
“If Bitcoin is to repeat 2015, it is possible that it will form a multi-month reaccumulation range at higher levels in the coming weeks.”
But the analyst says BTC could instead follow the pre-halving year pattern of 2019, falling more than 40% from its current value to clear out weak hands before continuing upwards.
“Worst-case scenario for Bitcoin? A revisit of around $20,000 in the next five and a half months before the halving. This means a 42% decrease from here. How likely is this to happen? “The probability of worst-case scenarios occurring is generally low.”
Finally, the analyst warns that when BTC reaches new annual highs, such as in 2023, the price has historically become very volatile.
“In the previous cycle, at this same point in the cycle, we were finishing a pullback before consolidating and then moving higher. But then we saw a deeper pullback. So right now, of course, we’re seeing the opposite. That’s why we’re breaking out right now. But who’s to say we won’t see a deeper pullback down the line in the next 175 days? Is it possible for it to go as low as $20,000? This would probably be the worst case scenario. But history shows we could see a deeper pullback.
This is really an opportunity to take advantage, but of course we are in the new macro uptrend. We have been in this situation for a long time. The only question is can we see a deeper pullback below $25,000? Of course, we hit new yearly highs. “Historically when we’ve done this we’ve seen a lot of volatility over the medium term, particularly in 2019 and 2020.”
Bitcoin is trading at $34,520 at the time of writing this news.