In times of crisis, politicians tend to want to demonstrate their drive and decisiveness – often in a hurry. That was the case during the 2015/16 refugee crisis or after the Corona outbreak. And also during the Ukraine crisis, the end of which is not foreseeable, many a word was said into a microphone which the interviewee would rather not have said later.
Now the new Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who got off to a brilliant start, has taken such a hasty shot. In view of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, he brought up the reactivation of general conscription and service. He sees good arguments for general compulsory service to strengthen civil protection, the German armed forces and rescue services. “You could show how important these institutions are for the functioning of our society,” said the SPD politician in an interview with the dpa.
The population is divided on this issue. According to a survey by the opinion research institute Kantar, 46 percent of those questioned are in favor of compulsory military service, while 50 percent are against it. What is surprising about the results is that the agreement among the younger generation is particularly high.
A majority of respondents aged 18 to 29 voted for universal conscription. One blemish here is that the survey excluded that group of people who would actually be affected by such a compulsory service: young people.
But still: When asked “Would you like to do military service personally?”, 55 percent of young men between the ages of 18 and 30 answered “yes” and 67 percent of women in the same age group answered “no”. The willingness is greatest among those under 30 who are close to the AfD or the SPD – albeit with very small numbers of cases.
Germany needs a new defense strategy
The support for Pistorius’ proposal from the Bundeswehr’s reservists’ association is not surprising. According to Patrick Sensburg, head of the association, the primary task of the Bundeswehr is national defence. “That requires different material and a lot more staff.”
An active force of 350,000 soldiers and around 1.2 million reservists would be needed to defend the Federal Republic. Germany currently has less than 200,000 soldiers and only 30,000 reservists who train regularly.
At the latest since the “turning point” of February 24, 2022, the established defense structures have had to be reconsidered, and not just in Germany. Continuing to rely on the US ultimately guaranteeing Europe’s security could be a fallacy. Nobody knows how a US President Trump or his successor would have acted or would act in the future in the Ukraine war.
However, it should be the task of a responsible policy to look at far-reaching decisions such as the introduction of general compulsory military service from as many perspectives as possible in order to then – after weighing up all social opportunities and risks – make a judgment.
>> Read here: The traffic light debates defense budget
When dealing with the corona crisis, it becomes clear that politicians probably relied too much on the view of virologists and paid too little attention to aspects of society as a whole.
Such a comprehensive consideration would show that the conscripted young women and men would only appear to be a cheap response force that could clean up flood damage, alleviate the nursing shortage, replace decimated airport staff or defend the country and the values of democracy and freedom.
In addition to the development of weapons technology, which would suggest a professional army, there are solid economic reasons against such compulsory service. For example, Germany is about to experience the massive aging of the population that has been forecast for a long time and will last for almost two decades.
A blow to the job market
The result: The shortage of skilled workers, which is already slowing down economic growth, will worsen significantly, since the hopes of immigration policy are likely to turn out to be dreams. A declining number of workers will have to finance a growing number of retirees and retirees – through higher taxes, social security contributions and presumably longer life and weekly working times.
Prof. Bert Rürup is President of the Handelsblatt Research Institute (HRI) and Chief Economist of the Handelsblatt. For many years he was a member and chairman of the German Council of Economic Experts and an adviser to several federal and foreign governments. More about his work and his team at research.handelsblatt.com.
If 700,000 young people had to do compulsory service every year in the future, they would be missing a year from the job market. At least some of the services previously provided at market prices would in future be carried out by those subject to mandatory obligations.
Labor would be wasted if it was no longer market prices but authorities that determined what young people had to do and where. The decisive factor for the overall economic effects of a general year of service would be the opportunity costs. It is important to estimate what the alternative activities of the obligated parties would be and what the market income would be.
Well-founded macroeconomic calculations should make it clear to what extent such a year of service would – viewed in isolation – dampen the level of pensions, by how many billion euros the tax subsidy on top of the statutory pension would have to be increased and how much the proportion of people at risk of poverty would increase.
In addition, intergenerational distribution effects must be taken into account. After all, it is the young generation who were particularly affected by the lockdowns and school closures during the pandemic and who now have to finance the aging surge and the decarbonisation of the economy and also raise the funds for a new European security architecture for Europe.
>> Read here: The skilled labor problem cannot be solved with money alone
If the federal government is concerned about the country’s ability to defend itself, it would be extremely unwise to burden the young population with a real special tax in the form of compulsory military service. Well-trained servicewomen and men are needed who will later be available as a reserve and who will be paid in line with the market during their service. Funding would be the responsibility of all taxpayers.
While universal conscription may be popular at the moment, it would be costly in an aging society like Germany’s and should therefore be analyzed as accurately as possible. The more concrete the discussion and thus the personal concern becomes, the more this idea is likely to lose approval.
Because one thing is clear: in our rapidly aging society, such a compulsory service does not do justice to the actual defense tasks. An army of unmotivated conscripts will do little to strengthen society’s preparedness.
More: The costs of the Ukraine war – an interim balance in twelve graphics