Important economic data has not yet been published in China.
(Photo: dpa)
Beijing China’s statistics agency delayed the release of third-quarter growth figures without giving a reason. This is believed to be related to the Communist Party Congress currently being held in Beijing.
A spokeswoman for the statistics authority confirmed to the Handelsblatt that the publication of the data, which was originally scheduled for Tuesday, will be postponed. She could not give a reason for the delay or a new date for the publication. Unemployment figures will also not be announced for the time being.
The publication of the foreign trade figures had already been postponed on Friday without giving reasons. Exports are considered the last pillar of support for China’s economy, which is suffering from repeated lockdowns and the worsening real estate crisis.
As late as Monday morning local time, the head of the powerful Reform and Development Commission (NDRC), Zhao Chenxin, emphasized at a press conference as part of the Communist Party’s party congress that the economy had “really recovered” in the third quarter.
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Experts assume that the Chinese economy should have grown by three to 3.5 percent in the third quarter. In the second quarter, it almost stagnated with a mini-plus of 0.4 percent.
China’s economy is only slowly recovering from the lockdown shock
However, the economy is recovering much more slowly than many had hoped. NDRC spokesman Zhao also admitted “larger than expected shocks”. Nevertheless, he attested to the great resilience of the second largest economy in the world.
In his speech at the current party congress on Sunday, head of state and party leader Xi Jinping emphasized the great economic successes during his tenure so far. However, he did not address the current problems.
Xi also spoke of successes of the zero-Covid strategy in the country. In the run-up to the party congress, party media had signaled adherence to the strict zero-tolerance policy, which repeatedly leads to lockdowns.
The growth target of 5.5 percent for the current year, which the Chinese government set itself in the spring, is considered no longer achievable. The International Monetary Fund expects growth of 3.2 percent. The World Bank is only assuming growth of 2.8 percent.
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That would be only the second time in four decades that China’s growth has been so low, following the first year of the 2020 pandemic. For the first time in more than 30 years, China would therefore grow more slowly than the rest of the emerging countries in Asia.
The International Monetary Fund recently warned that China’s real estate crisis could “spill over” to banks, companies or local governments. In recent years, the real estate sector has contributed up to a third of China’s economic output, both directly and indirectly. The weakness of the Chinese economy is “largely” due to problems in the country’s real estate sector, emphasizes Mark Williams, Asia chief economist at the analysis house Capital Economics.
But apparently many in the party do not want to admit the problems. A government insider speaks of a “denial of reality”. In the run-up to the party congress, the chambers of commerce in some EU countries had been asked not to publish surveys that revealed the bad mood among their member companies in view of the gloomy economic prospects for the time being.
More: Why China’s real estate crisis is more dangerous than all corona lockdowns