It is important to make it clear to China where the West’s red lines are.
(Photo: AP)
China’s government leaves no doubt that unification with Taiwan is the top state doctrine, enforced by force if necessary. But a military invasion should only be the last resort. Rather, the ruling Communist Party is sticking with the military strategist Sunzi: they want to win without fighting.
She recently made that clear. Not with the cross-strait military maneuvers in response to Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s meeting with US No. 3 Kevin McCarthy. But with the charm offensive against Taiwan’s ex-president Ma Ying-jeou, who was visiting the mainland.
Its Kuomintang (KMT) party is traditionally considered to be close to China. That is why Beijing is doing everything it can to ensure that the KMT wins the presidential elections in January. This is also reflected in the reaction to Tsai’s US visit, which was less aggressive than the military show of force after Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.
Tsai has once again proven that she has mastered the tricky balancing act: as far as possible from China, as close as possible to the protective power USA, which has pledged to defend Taiwan’s independence. Tsai has always cleverly avoided officially breaking away from the People’s Republic.
Should a possible successor proclaim Taiwan’s independence, China will no doubt take military action against it. Presumably in the form of a sea and air blockade. Probably accompanied by cyber attacks and disinformation campaigns.
Unlike an invasion, this type of warfare makes a united Western response more difficult. It is all the more important to make it clear to China where the red lines are. And what the price is if these are exceeded. The best deterrent is the united stance of the West, such as that towards Russia in the Ukraine war.
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