Tokyo During its military maneuvers around Taiwan, China has practiced blockading the island with ships and planes. On the third and planned last day of the exercise, several warplanes were deployed in the Taiwan Strait, Chinese state media reported on Monday. China claims Taiwan as part of its own territory.
Military exercises have also taken place northwest, southwest and in the waters east of Taiwan. The aircraft carrier Shandong was also involved, the Chinese military said. According to the Japanese government, the “Shandong” was in waters off the Okinawa Islands in southern Japan. Okinawa, the largest of these islands, is an important US Air Force base.
Taiwan’s air force and navy have seldom been as busy intercepting as they were this weekend. With the multi-day maneuver, the Chinese leadership protested against a meeting between Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-Wen and Kevin McCarthy, Speaker of the US House of Representatives, on the sidelines of her trip to the USA.
The USA and Taiwan wanted to underline their close ties last week. Although the USA does not diplomatically recognize Taiwan as a state, it has guaranteed the country unspecified defense aid since 1979 with the “Taiwan Relations Act”.
The Chinese leadership, on the other hand, sees the high-level meeting of a Taiwanese head of state on American soil as an affront to the “One China principle” propagated by China. Accordingly, Taiwan is an inseparable part of the People’s Republic, which China wants to bring back to the Middle Kingdom by force if necessary. And that is exactly what Beijing has demonstrated.
China’s planes and ships cross sea border with Taiwan
Well over 100 planes entered Taiwan’s air surveillance zone by Monday, and ships crossed the center line of the Taiwan Strait, which China had long accepted as a sort of unofficial border between the mainland and the island.
News from Chinese state television is shown in a restaurant in Beijing, reporting on the military exercise off Taiwan,
(Photo: Reuters)
In addition, China held military target practice off the coast of China’s Fujian Prefecture. The Chinese Communist Party’s English-language mouthpiece said it was about “maintaining pressure on the forces of ‘Taiwan independence’ and protecting national sovereignty and territorial integrity.” On the first day, the control of the sea, air and information infrastructure was trained, on the second day attacks on land targets.
The US, for its part, sent an aircraft carrier and other warships to the region. Taiwan’s military practiced interception with a “calm, rational and serious attitude,” according to the Defense Ministry. The goal is to avoid an escalation.
Taiwan does not yet see any acute danger of war
In Taiwan, the renewed maneuvers did not trigger public fears. Because the population of the island is used to saber-rattling from Beijing. In addition, the scope of the maneuvers so far has been smaller than after McCarthy’s predecessor Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August 2022.
At the time, China also fired live missiles into the waters around the island to simulate a naval blockade. Some of the missiles even landed in Japan’s waters, whose southernmost islands are just 100 kilometers from Taiwan’s northeast coast.
According to official information, the United States and Japan are closely monitoring the Chinese maneuver.
(Photo: AP)
This was taken as a signal from Beijing to Japan not to take part in the defense of Taiwan in an emergency. Leading Japanese government politicians have repeatedly stated in recent years that a Chinese attack on the island would also harm Japan’s national interests.
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However, Beijing has not repeated such maneuvers so far. Wang Chih-sheng, general secretary of a Taiwanese association for exchange among Asia’s elite leaders, told Taiwanese reporters over the weekend that the People’s Liberation Army will “bark more than bite”. For him, the exercises are nothing more than Beijing’s propaganda for its own nationalists, some of whom are promoting the conquest of the island on the Chinese Internet.
Taiwan’s military is on constant alert in the face of Chinese maneuvers.
(Photo: Reuters)
Taiwan’s air force even takes the Chinese drills with a pinch of humor. The Defense Ministry released photos of fighter pilots with a new sticker on their uniforms targeting Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Then a Taiwanese black bear smacks a caricature of the cartoon bear “Pooh the Bear”.
Pu is banned in China because he is often equated with President Xi Jinping. The five stars of the Chinese flag on the bear’s chest left no doubt about the message that Taiwan will not bow to China. The inscription on the Luftwaffe patch also matched this: “Intercept!” and “We are open around the clock”.
How likely is a war?
The big question remains how great the danger of war is at the moment. China’s President Xi has instructed his military to upgrade the army to take Taiwan by 2027. However, there is also speculation about earlier dates among the military and observers in Taiwan and the USA.
During a Chinese military exercise, precision attacks on important targets on Taiwan and in the surrounding waters were simulated.
(Photo: via REUTERS)
However, Sheu Jyh-shyang, who analyzes China’s military at Taiwan’s state think tank “Institute for National Defense and Security Research”, says: “I currently do not rate the risk of war as very high.” China’s preparations are not yet sufficient.
In addition, Beijing is struggling with many internal social and economic problems. He warns that China’s leadership is currently trying to undermine the Taiwanese’s will to defend themselves with propaganda and a charm offensive.
How China, the US and the EU maneuver politically
Meanwhile, China is attempting to further isolate Taiwan diplomatically. In March, Taiwan’s previous partner Honduras diplomatically switched sides. This means that only 13 countries now recognize Taiwan diplomatically. Paraguay could be the next shaky candidate, Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry said on Monday.
China can also influence the Taiwanese presidential elections in January 2024. Should the opposition conservative Kuomintang (KMT) win the election, talks between Taipei and Beijing could resume.
In contrast to President Tsai’s Democratic Progressive Party, the KMT is trying to position itself as a peace party. Her most famous politician, Ma Ying-jeou, has just shown that. While Tsai traveled to America, the KMT politician became the first former President of Taiwan to visit the People’s Republic of China.
Meanwhile, delegations from the US Congress regularly arrive from the US to pledge arms and other support to Taiwan. Support for Taiwan is one of the few issues on which Democrats and Republicans largely agree.
The two top European politicians visited China together.
(Photo: Reuters)
The European Union (EU) is also concerned about peace in the region. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and French President Emmanuel Macron openly addressed Taiwan during a visit to China last week. However, Xi dismissed hopes for a compromise on the Taiwan issue as “wishful thinking”.
Macron insists on a European pace in the conflict over Taiwan. “The worst thing would be to think that we Europeans should be followers on this issue and adapt to the American rhythm and a Chinese overreaction,” he said in an interview with French newspaper Les Echos published on Sunday.
Macron continued: “Our priority is not to adapt to the agenda of others in all regions of the world.” A trap for Europeans would be to be caught in foreign crises at a moment of clarifying their own strategic position. Europe then threatens to be a vassal between the USA and China, although one can be a third pole.
With agency material.
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