The Central Bank’s year-end forecasts have been updated for the dollar/TL rate, which has reached its new normal by exceeding 9 TL this week. According to the market participants survey, the dollar is expected to reach the level of 9.22 TL by the end of 2021.
According to the previous results of the market participants survey, the dollar expectation for the end of 2021 was 8.92 TL. However, this expectation was reached months ago. According to the October survey Expectation of new dollar-TL rate for the end of 2021 reaches 9.22 rose.
According to the results of the survey organized by the Central Bank, the year-end Inflation after 24 months and CPI expectations are also on the rise.
The expectation of a record increase in the dollar may also push inflation and CPI up:
- In the previous survey, the inflation expectation for the end of 2021 was 16.74%, the new expectation rose to 17.93%.
- The CPI expectation for the next 12 months was 12.94% compared to the previous survey, and 13.91% with the new survey.
- Inflation expectation after 24 months increased from 10.27% to 10.71%.
- The expectation for the end of 2021 Gross Domestic Product rose from 8.2% to 8.9%.
- The growth expectation for 2022 remained at the level of 4.2%.
It should be noted that these results are according to the survey organized by the Central Bank, including the participants in the market. IMF, Turkey’s While raising the growth forecast for 2022 It is also noteworthy that the expectations in the domestic market remained stable.
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What do these numbers mean, how will technological products with dollar-based prices be affected?
Due to the increase in the dollar in recent years, the prices of end-user products such as smart phones, computers and tablets, whose prices are fixed abroad, have gradually increased in our country. Now the psychological limit for a good phone is 10,000 TL or even more. Although the manufacturing companies put their products on sale with a lower profit margin in order to compensate for the exchange rate difference in Turkey, when taxes are added, the amount that comes out of the consumer’s pocket continues to increase gradually.
The survey results also concern all companies that bring technological products to Turkey. Not immediately, but we expect to see price increases for smartphones, computers, tablets and other tech products in the coming months, especially in December and January.