Central Bank Announces Year-End Dollar Inflation Forecast

Central Bank of Turkey Republic (CBT), the dollar-Turkish lira expectation for the end of the year has updated the estimated inflation rates. According to the results of the September market participants’ survey, the dollar rate will be 8.92 TL by the end of 2021. In other words, the dollar rate, which was traded at the level of 8.59 TL as of 12:00, will increase in the next 3 months. will continue to rise.

The forecast made by the Central Bank for the next 12 months is a clear indication that the next year will be more painful. Because, according to the CBRT, the dollar rate for the next 12 months is 9.56 TL it will be. This estimate was 9.37 TL according to the data of the previous period. In summary, the high exchange rate wave in the economy will continue for at least 1 more year. This situation, It will also be directly reflected in the price of dollar-indexed products..

The situation in inflation is not very encouraging either.

Expectations regarding the year-end consumer inflation (CPI) are not of the kind that will make the citizens smile. In this context, according to the market participants survey, the CPI at the end of the year 16.74 percent will be recorded as In the survey of the previous period, this rate was 16.30 percent. According to the forecasts made for the next 12 months, the inflation in 2021 will be 12.94 percent. This rate will increase to 10.71 percent in 2022. will decline.

Meanwhile, the market participants survey also revealed their year-end growth data projections. Accordingly, the growth rate, which was previously estimated to be 4 percent, is in the last survey. rose to 4.2 percent.

*This content is not investment advice.