“The world is on fire” – with Corona, the attack on Ukraine, the climate crisis, the massive loss of biodiversity and rapidly increasing costs in the supply chain, several crises have threateningly overlapped.
A so-called “perfect storm” is brewing. The food supply of millions of people is increasingly at risk. The Russian war of aggression is currently leading to price increases, which are mainly at the expense of the poorest, since they spend the largest share of their budget on food.
This applies to Germany and especially to the poorest of the poor in Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia. In these countries, families already spend around 70 percent of their income on food. Even the World Food Program is coming under financial pressure.
I think Putin knows these facts well. He uses hunger as a weapon to destabilize societies and as moral pressure. Against the countries whose existence depends on imports, but also against the EU.
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Some are now calling for a response to this by rolling back the greening of agriculture. But that would mean turning a blind eye to the massive medium-term effects of the crises.
A look at the facts: We have a distribution problem, not a quantity problem. There would be enough for everyone. In Germany, we use around 60 percent of the almost twelve million hectares of arable land for animal feed, but only 20 percent directly for human consumption.
The food supply of millions of people is increasingly at risk.
(Photo: dpa)
In addition, there are another twelve million hectares that are “occupied” in other countries for Germany, also primarily for animal feed such as soya from South America. The fact is: For years we have been producing enough food, calculated in terms of calories, and yet 800 million people are starving at the moment.
The starving people first need acute help, but the next step is a different agricultural policy so that they can feed themselves better than they do today in their regions. To do this, other food systems must be set up there.
80 percent of deforestation is due to food production
However, this also means that our food system and EU agricultural policy are facing an immense challenge: the climate crisis will not wait, the extinction of species is progressing, the degradation of formerly fertile soil is dramatic.
Today, 20 to 40 percent of the global land area is already degraded, resulting in annual costs of around 50 billion euros. Global warming of two degrees Celsius would lead to a ten to 50 percent reduction in wheat harvests in large parts of the world.
According to Munich Re, weather catastrophes have cost around USD 4.2 trillion since 1980 (not including disrupted supply chains) and no one would seriously dispute that the climate crisis will make this worse.
The crises reinforce each other. Food production accounts for 80 percent of deforestation, about 30 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions and 70 percent of freshwater use.
Intensive agriculture is one of the main causes of the dramatic loss of biodiversity due to monocultures, the use of energy-intensive fertilizers and pesticides. However, pollinating insects are one of the foundations for the future of nutrition.
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It hasn’t hurt agribusiness profits, which continue to post record sales. However, the promises made by agrochemicals and the seed companies serve their own interests alone; their promises have not been fulfilled for the local people.
South American, African and Asian countries have degraded their farmland and forests for our tanks and troughs. In the process, their own nutritional interests have fallen behind. There is poverty and hunger.
We must preserve what nourishes us
Food security must finally look at the whole system. It is no coincidence that the international debate is about building or maintaining food systems and not just about short-term help.
At the moment we are producing and consuming a lot of the wrong stuff, which is leading to unprecedented environmental destruction and hunger on the one hand, and lifestyle diseases such as diabetes and obesity on the other.
With the Planetary Health Diet developed by the EAT-Lancet Commission, ten billion people could be fed healthily without crossing planetary boundaries. To do this, however, the consumption of legumes, fruit, vegetables and nuts would have to double, and that of meat and sugar would have to be halved. So instead of just looking at the sheer volume of agricultural commodities, let’s look at the global distribution and the diversity on our plate.
In the current crisis, we urgently need to increase humanitarian aid, for example for the World Food Program, and ensure that the markets remain open. This is the only way to avoid massive price increases and help the poorest of the poor.
Anyone who wants to suspend sustainable agriculture now is endangering the basis of food production
Food poverty in Germany, one of the richest countries in the world, is also a sign of poverty for us. A sensible measure that can point the way to a better food system is the reduction in VAT for plant-based foods such as legumes, cereals, fruit and vegetables.
Another measure must be to end the admixture of agro-fuels. The ecological footprint of products and thus the true costs for all of us must finally become visible. We must combat food waste and significantly reduce the number of animals kept.
If the pigs kept in Germany were reduced by 20 percent through higher animal welfare, around one million tons of grain would be available for direct human consumption.
Of course, this also requires a lower consumption of animal products. The out-of-home catering has an important role model and steering function, because millions of people eat every day in the canteens of authorities, hospitals, universities, schools, old people’s homes and day-care centers.
The demand power that exists here already has a decisive influence on what is produced. It is our responsibility to harmonize existing demand with all other political goals such as climate goals, biodiversity and regional value creation in the future.
Whoever wants to suspend the greening of agriculture now is actually endangering the foundations of food production and farms. The motto must be: Preserve what feeds us. The attack on Ukraine exacerbates world hunger, but also shows ruthlessly unjust international agricultural structures. Changing that is what matters now.
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