While Bitcoin price is range-bound and altcoins are on the rise, the strong US dollar could pose a significant hurdle. Will Bitcoin remain stuck in a range, or is a breakout on the cards? How will major altcoins including DOGE Coin behave? Crypto analyst Rakesh Upadhyay examines the charts to find out.
An overview of the cryptocurrency market
cryptokoin.comAs you follow from , Fed Chairman Jerome Powell dashed hopes for a rate cut in March. However, Powell said the rate cut will probably happen this year. Fed comments and strong macroeconomic data lowered Fed rate cut expectations to 120 basis points in 2024 from 150 basis points at the end of last year. This pushed the US Dollar Index (DXY) to an 11-week high.
Historically, Bitcoin moves in inverse correlation with the US dollar. Therefore, the strengthening of the dollar may create a headwind for Bitcoin in the near term. A small positive development for the bulls is the strong inflow into BlackRock and Fidelity’s spot Bitcoin ETFs in January, totaling approximately $4.8 billion. It’s possible that continued inflows into ETFs could limit the downside.
BTC, ETH, BNB and SOL Coin analysis
Bitcoin (BTC) price analysis
Even after repeated attempts, the bears were unable to sink Bitcoin below the 20-day EMA ($42,463). This shows that the bulls are fiercely defending the level. Buyers will try to push the price to the overhead resistance zone of $44,000 to $44,700. This remains a key area for the bears to defend. Because if they fail in their efforts, it is possible for BTC to skyrocket to the psychological level of $50,000.
On the other hand, if the price turns down from $44,700, BTC is likely to consolidate in a narrow range for a while. The bears will be on top if they sink BTC below $41,394. BTC is likely to slide further towards $40,000 and eventually $37,980.
Ethereum (ETH) price analysis
Ether has been trading below the moving averages for several days. However, the bears failed to pull the price towards the strong $2,100 support. This shows that purchases can be made at lower levels. The bulls are trying to push the price above the moving averages. If they do so, it is possible that ETH could challenge the $2,400 level.
A breakout and close above this resistance will indicate that the bulls have defeated the bears. ETH is likely to rally to $2,600 and then to the Jan. 12 intraday high of $2,717. Conversely, if the price turns down from overhead resistance, it will indicate that the bears are active at higher levels. It is possible that this will keep ETH in the range of $ 2,100 to $ 2,400 for a while.
Binance Coin (BNB) price analysis
BNB bounced off the 50-day SMA ($300) on February 4. However, bulls have difficulty building on this strength. Buyers will need to overcome the overhead barrier at the downtrend line to invalidate the descending triangle formation. If they are successful, BNB is likely to rise to $320 and then to $338.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price declines and breaks below the 50-day SMA, it would indicate that the bears continue to sell in small rallies. BNB is likely to drop to the strong support at $288 later. If this level breaks, BNB will complete the bearish pattern. This is likely to start a downside move towards $260.
Solana (SOL) price analysis
Solana is witnessing a tough battle between bulls and bears near the moving averages. The price action of the last few days is forming an inverse H&S pattern that will complete with a breakout and close above $107. The target of this bullish formation is $125. There is a minor resistance at $117. However, it is likely to exceed this.
Alternatively, if the price breaks out and stays below the moving averages, it will signal that the bulls have given up. It is possible that SOL will start to decline towards $79, which is an important level for the bulls to protect. Because if it cracks, the next stop will be $64.
XRP, ADA, AVAX and DOGE Coin analysis
Ripple (XRP) price analysis
The bears were unable to keep XRP below $0.50 on January 31 and February 1. Thus, it started a recovery towards the 20-day EMA ($0.53) on February 3. The price’s turn down from the 20-day EMA on February 4 indicates that sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. If the $0.50 support disappears, it is possible for XRP to drop as low as $0.46.
Conversely, if the price rises from the current level and breaks above the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that the bulls are fiercely defending the $0.50 support. A positive divergence in the RSI also indicates a recovery in the near term. If buyers push the price above the 20-day EMA, XRP is likely to attempt a rally towards the bearish trend line.
Cardano (ADA) price analysis
Cardano has been trending near the 20-day EMA ($0.50) for the past few days. This points to indecision between bulls and bears. The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the RSI is just below the midpoint. This shows that there is a range-dependent movement in the near term.
If buyers push the price above the 20-day EMA, a rally to the bearish trend line is possible for ADA. The bulls will need to overcome this hurdle to signal a potential trend change in the near term. On the downside, if the price falls below $0.48, it would indicate that the bears are trying to gain the upper hand. ADA is likely to slide to $0.46 and then to the support line of the channel.
Avalanche (AVAX) price analysis
Avalanche reversed direction from the downtrend line on February 3. However, it is a positive sign that the bulls are trying to defend the 20-day EMA ($34.55). If the price turns up from the current level, the probability of moving above the descending channel will increase. If this happens, it is possible for AVAX to rise to $44. Then, a rally attempt to the psychologically important $50 level is also possible.
If the bears want to stem the upside move, they will need to quickly sink the price below the nearest support at $32. If they do so, AVAX is likely to fall towards the channel support line near $24.
Dogecoin (DOGE Coin) price analysis
DOGE Coin continues to trade below the 20-day EMA ($0.08). However, the bulls did not allow the price to fall below the bullish trend line of the symmetrical triangle formation. If DOGE Coin price rises and breaks above the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that it will extend its stay within the triangle for a few more days. DOGE Coin will try to rise to the bearish trend line.
The next trend move is likely to start with a break above or below the triangle. If DOGE Coin price breaks above the triangle, it is possible for it to move to the $0.10 to $0.11 resistance zone. Conversely, a break below the triangle would open the doors for DOGE Coin to drop to $0.07 and then to $0.06.
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