US-based cryptocurrency exchange Kraken has released its year-end forecasts for the price of Bitcoin (BTC). The exchange said that it expects around $96,000 BTC in the 4th quarter. He based his analysis on the historical data of the 3rd and 4th quarters. He said that a return of 119% could come in the last quarter of 2021. Here are all the details…
Why is Kraken bullish for Bitcoin?
In a new report, Kraken says that Bitcoin typically records its best annual performance in the last three months of the year (Q4):
It should be noted that although a quarter was positive for BTC as 3Q ended, 4Q was historically the best quarter for BTC with average and average returns of +119% and +58% respectively.
Kraken adds that based on the average return recorded over the years, Bitcoin could end the year nearing $100,000:
At BTC’s end-of-quarter closing price of $43,800, a +19% return in Q4 2021 would put BTC at roughly $96,000.
Kraken says that with a median return of 58%, Bitcoin will close the year with an additional $69,000. BTC was trading around $54,800 at the time of writing, which indicates 25% upside potential. The crypto exchange also says that October tends to be a more volatile month for Bitcoin than September. Bitcoin (BTC) is up about 25% from October’s opening price of $43,820. For the two most critical months of each year, Kraken said:
Shifting the focus to October will typically see the month be more volatile than September (61% vs. annual average volatility 66%), and BTC tends to finish +13% higher than historical averages. While October promises to be a favorable month for BTC, it should be noted that November and December are equally favorable for bulls.
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