Von der Leyen has virtually nothing to say about enlargement policy.
(Photo: AP)
Nothing is more natural than offering the prospect of EU membership to the democratically minded Ukraine, which is the victim of a perfidious war of conquest by Russia. And it was certainly meant as a good gesture, as a sign of solidarity, when EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen did exactly that. Nevertheless, this step was careless. The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy immediately sent an application for membership to Brussels and asked for admission in an urgent procedure.
But one thing is clear: there will be no urgent procedure. It’s not even possible for legal reasons. And politically not wanted either: Ukraine, one of the poorest countries in Europe, does not meet the criteria for membership, for numerous reasons. These include the generally weak economy, the strong influence of oligarchs on politics – and border disputes.
Also: Von der Leyen has hardly anything to say about enlargement policy. The EU Commission only makes recommendations in this area; the decisions are made solely by the EU member states – unanimously. In many, many steps. The road to EU membership is long. Very, very long for underdeveloped countries like Ukraine: Brussels is talking about a period of around 20 years. An emergency doesn’t change that.
It is the states on the EU’s eastern flank that are in favor of Ukraine’s rapid accession: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, as well as Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria. Her biggest motive: fear of Russia.
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So far there has been silence in the other capitals. It is doubtful whether the silence will turn into a closed yes.
Naming as an official accession candidate possible
EU Council President Charles Michel announced on Monday that the matter would be discussed. But the European ministers always talk about a lot in their meetings. About the opening of accession negotiations with North Macedonia, for example, for many, many years without anything happening. Skopje sent the application for EU membership to Brussels 18 years ago.
>> Read here: “We want to see our children live” – Selenski calls for EU membership in an emotional appeal
It is therefore out of the question that Ukraine will soon be a member country. It is only conceivable that the member states will agree to officially declare Ukraine as a candidate for accession. But even that would probably take time. And it would only have symbolic meaning. It would not mean that accession negotiations would start any time soon, and even less that there would be a new EU member in the foreseeable future.
It would only show the Ukrainians: We are on your side, you belong to us. As legitimate as such a concern is, it could end up being counterproductive.
Because the EU is once again in danger of losing its credibility. Brussels has always been suspected of promising a lot and delivering little. Selenski is also aware of this. “This phase, where you write something on paper, this phase is over in my country,” he said in his speech to the European Parliament this Tuesday. Instead, the EU should prove that it really is on the side of the Ukrainians.
More: EU accession in an urgent procedure? The most important answers to Ukraine’s membership application