The shortage of semiconductors is particularly affecting the automotive industry.
(Photo: dpa)
Berlin The federal government does not expect the supply bottlenecks for preliminary products and raw materials to end anytime soon. “Despite the high order backlog, the industrial economy is likely to be subdued into the coming year,” says the Ministry of Economic Affairs’ monthly report published on Monday: “This applies in particular to the weighty automotive industry, which is suffering from a shortage of semiconductors.” worldwide demand for German goods, the manufacturing industry is therefore not in a position to increase output to a greater extent.
The service providers have recently benefited from the corona easing. “In view of the current pandemic, the risks have increased again,” warned the ministry at the same time. Nevertheless, the service economy should be able to compensate for the weakness in industry for the remainder of the year. “Overall, however, the gross domestic product should only increase slightly in the final quarter of the year,” the ministry expects. In the summer it was still enough to achieve strong growth of 1.8 percent. Some economists even assume that the current fourth quarter has stagnated.
Due to the weak end to the year, the federal government recently cut its forecast for economic growth in 2021, from 3.5 to 2.6 percent. In the coming year, the gross domestic product is expected to increase by 4.1 percent, after an increase of only 3.6 percent had previously been expected.
The ministry expects inflation to ease, which at 4.5 percent is currently higher than it has been since 1993. “The scarcity of raw materials and intermediate products is becoming increasingly noticeable here too,” says the monthly report. Since significant special factors such as the VAT cut will be eliminated in 2022, the inflation rate is likely to decrease noticeably.
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